2 Burlington at Post Farms Mdws · O'Fallon, MO 63385

$305,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 343 Days on market

$195/sqft · 14% below area Est $355k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. TO-BE-BUILT floor plan ready to personalize into your dream home! LIST PRICE is for a 2BR, 2BA and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Burlington 2 -story. Perfect home for first-time homebuyers or those looking to downsize! Pricing varies depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features an open floorplan with a living room that flows to the kitchen and dining area. Plenty of cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar for additional seating. The master suite includes a large walk-in closet & private bathroom. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia & much more! Additional choices include 2-bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, and bay windows. Post Farms Meadows features cottage-style homes with 2-car garages and full basements, all just minutes from shopping, entertainment, and top-rated schools. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty. Display photos shown.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Large walk-in closet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LIVING ROOM FLOWS TO KITCHEN
• OPTIONAL BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• 2 CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,676 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,517
• List price: $305,900
• Delta: -13.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Wheatfield Cir	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+4%)	3mo	$385,418	$237	70
38 Wisdom Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	1mo	$400,000	$222	64
706 Barnwood Hill Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-6%)	3mo	$459,900	$314	61
708 Barnwood Hill Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-5%)	6mo	$469,900	$315	61
543 Wheatfield Cir	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+4%)	9mo	$409,900	$252	60
435 Sunset Hollow Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-10%)	6mo	$319,900	$227	54
437 Sunset Hollow Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-10%)	8mo	$289,900	$206	52
107 Piety Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-13%)	11mo	$340,000	$250	52
554 Wheatfield Cir	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+12%)	7mo	$449,900	$257	51
929 Little Fieldstone Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	8mo	$355,000	$254	49
2 Harrow Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	3mo	$350,000	$203	44
3 Harrow Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	9mo	$387,286	$224	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-62,270
• Equity at exit: $45,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-63,765
• Equity at exit: $26,449

Cash invested: $85,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,604
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,588/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $271,697

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,475
• Closing costs: $9,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
567 Wheatfield Cir Wentzville, MO	4.0	2.5	1756	$2,700	$1.54	3d	1	0.48mi
2 Harrow Ct Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,300	$1.33	1d	1	0.76mi
56 Helena Ct Wentzville, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	43d	1	1.03mi
229 Greengate Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,471	$1.35	43d	1	1.27mi
569 Parkgate Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	4.0	1985	$2,350	$1.18	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,900 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,900 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,900 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,900 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,900 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,900 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,900 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,900 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,900 Active 332 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $305,900 Active 329 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,900 Active 328 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,900 Active 327 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,900 Active 326 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,900 Active 325 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $305,900 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Pre-Construction. TO-BE-BUILT floor plan ready to personalize into your dream home! LIST PRICE is for a 2BR, 2BA and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Burlington 2 -story. Perfect home for first-time homebuyers or those looking to downsize! Pricing varies depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features an open floorplan with a living room that flows to the kitchen and dining area. Plenty of cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar for additional seating. The master suite includes a large walk-in closet & private bathroom. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia & much more! Additional choices include 2-bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, and bay windows. Post Farms Meadows features cottage-style homes with 2-car garages and full basements, all just minutes from shopping, entertainment, and top-rated schools. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty. Display photos shown.

16. 2026-01-30
    price $302,900 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Pre-Construction. TO-BE-BUILT floor plan ready to personalize into your dream home! LIST PRICE is for a 2BR, 2BA and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Burlington 2 -story. Perfect home for first-time homebuyers or those looking to downsize! Pricing varies depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features an open floorplan with a living room that flows to the kitchen and dining area. Plenty of cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar for additional seating. The master suite includes a large walk-in closet & private bathroom. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia & much more! Additional choices include 2-bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, and bay windows. Post Farms Meadows features cottage-style homes with 2-car garages and full basements, all just minutes from shopping, entertainment, and top-rated schools. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty. Display photos shown.

17. 2025-09-08
    price $299,900 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Pre-Construction. TO-BE-BUILT floor plan ready to personalize into your dream home! LIST PRICE is for a 2BR, 2BA and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Burlington 2 -story. Perfect home for first-time homebuyers or those looking to downsize! Pricing varies depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features an open floorplan with a living room that flows to the kitchen and dining area. Plenty of cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar for additional seating. The master suite includes a large walk-in closet & private bathroom. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia & much more! Additional choices include 2-bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, and bay windows. Post Farms Meadows features cottage-style homes with 2-car garages and full basements, all just minutes from shopping, entertainment, and top-rated schools. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty. Display photos shown.

18. 2025-07-10
    listed $289,900 Active 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Pre-Construction. TO-BE-BUILT floor plan ready to personalize into your dream home! LIST PRICE is for a 2BR, 2BA and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Burlington 2 -story. Perfect home for first-time homebuyers or those looking to downsize! Pricing varies depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features an open floorplan with a living room that flows to the kitchen and dining area. Plenty of cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar for additional seating. The master suite includes a large walk-in closet & private bathroom. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia & much more! Additional choices include 2-bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, and bay windows. Post Farms Meadows features cottage-style homes with 2-car garages and full basements, all just minutes from shopping, entertainment, and top-rated schools. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty. Display photos shown.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,135
• − Property taxes: −$4,588
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$8,899
• Taxable loss: −$8,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+5.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $305,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $302,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $299,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Listed $289,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid