2819 Mcclelland Ave · Erie, PA 16510

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1943 0.39 ac lot $121/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This investment property is generating income with a tenant already in place! The home has been well maintained including a newer roof and furnace, as well as an updated kitchen, bath and windows. Enjoy the convenient location near amenities and main roadways, also bordering McClelland Park!

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Newer roof
• Updated windows

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• BORDERING MCCLELLAND PARK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $114,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$163,860) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Diehl Sch (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,462 of 1,518 statewide, top 97%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,364 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,860
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -29.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2518 E 26th St	0.32mi	3/1.0	936 (-2%)	2mo	$114,500	$122	81
1962 Glendale Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	960 (+1%)	3mo	$117,500	$122	71
2770 E 28th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	960 (+1%)	6mo	$159,900	$167	68
2635 Linwood Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	967 (+2%)	8mo	$150,000	$155	67
3830 Rice Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (+1%)	8mo	$153,000	$159	61
2748 E 32nd St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-4%)	9mo	$114,000	$125	56
1918 Glendale Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-7%)	5mo	$128,000	$145	52
2852 Euclid Blvd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	958 (+1%)	9mo	$243,000	$254	51
2235 Prospect Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+11%)	8mo	$129,500	$122	48
3016 Woodlawn Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-12%)	2mo	$120,000	$144	42
2405 Union Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+14%)	8mo	$155,500	$144	40
3002 Rose Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-14%)	5mo	$110,000	$135	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-21,012
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-21,260
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16510

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,263/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $108,142

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-6	+0% $-38	+5% $-71	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-78	+0% $-38	+5% $2	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-9	base $-38	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2526 E 39th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,050	$0.94	45d	1	0.72mi
1205 Priestley Ave Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-03-12
    listed $114,900 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This investment property is generating income with a tenant already in place! The home has been well maintained including a newer roof and furnace, as well as an updated kitchen, bath and windows. Enjoy the convenient location near amenities and main roadways, also bordering McClelland Park!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,263 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,263 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,263
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 25,152

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, India, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.36%
• Current HPI: 240.7222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $114,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,263 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.