543 Ashlawn Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$189,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $101/sqft · 18% above area Est $161k · 18% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,872 square feet of space with two spacious Livingroom’s! perfect for entertaining. The bedrooms are all generously sized, providing ample room for relaxation and personalization. Close to shopping, restaurants, and easy access to Hwy 105! Schedule your tour today and envision the possibilities of making this house your new home!

Key facts

• Built 2020
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,413
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: 17.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
696 Bradford St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+3%)	8mo	$130,000	$68	76
16126 Tree Monkey Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	7mo	$429,000	$247	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,195
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,119
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	43d	1	0.39mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	1.33mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	43d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,999 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,999 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,999 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $189,999 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,872 square feet of space with two spacious Livingroom’s! perfect for entertaining. The bedrooms are all generously sized, providing ample room for relaxation and personalization. Close to shopping, restaurants, and easy access to Hwy 105! Schedule your tour today and envision the possibilities of making this house your new home!

15. 2026-04-03
    historical
16. 2026-01-10
    price $199,990
17. 2025-12-07
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,000 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$477/yr (+$40/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$179
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,872 square feet of space with two spacious living rooms. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Resale Replace the ceiling tiles — New ceiling tiles can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace the ceiling tiles — New ceiling tiles can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $189,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,000 · -17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.