11507 Orchard Rd · Kansas City, MO 64134

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.34 ac lot $139/sqft · 6% below area Est $212k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold on POE.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($324/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Kansas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Hickman Mills C-1 (urban): math 8% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #314 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,037 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 629 students, 100% FRL); Smith-Hale Middle (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #368 of 391 statewide, top 94%, 770 students, 100% FRL); Ruskin High School (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #416 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 1,273 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,371 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,347
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -5.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11705 Belmont Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-2%)	2mo	$209,000	$148	78
11418 Orchard Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,633 (+13%)	3mo	$180,000	$110	64
11114 Bennington Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	3mo	$155,000	$101	58
11804 Fuller Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,292 (-10%)	0mo	$200,000	$155	57
7002 E 112 St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,394 (-3%)	4mo	$199,000	$143	53
11810 Fuller Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+12%)	4mo	$150,000	$93	50
11916 Armitage Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,292 (-10%)	0mo	$170,000	$132	48
11014 Cambridge Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$184,900	$148	42
6403 E 120th Ter	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,584 (+10%)	1mo	$259,900	$164	42
6302 E 120th Ter	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-10%)	10mo	$225,000	$174	40
12003 Belmont Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,258 (-13%)	9mo	$250,000	$199	40
6401 E 120th Ter	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,245 (-14%)	7mo	$177,500	$143	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,288
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,442
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64134

• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,620

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $84	+0% $27	+5% $-30	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-38	+0% $27	+5% $92	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $78	base $27	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11720 Newton Ave Kansas City, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1293	$1,699	$1.31	3d	9	0.36mi
11803 Holiday Dr #5 Kansas City, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	1016	$1,130	$1.11	3d	1	0.46mi
6904 Longview Rd Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	3d	1	0.46mi
11805 Lawndale Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,565	$1.36	25d	1	0.48mi
11407 Winchester Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,360	$1.45	5d	1	0.54mi
6201 E Red Bridge Rd Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,645	$1.03	18d	1	0.54mi
6905 E 112th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	972	$1,550	$1.59	45d	1	0.59mi
7104 Longview Rd Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,275	$1.40	16d	1	0.60mi
11127 Blue Ridge Blvd Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,599	$1.60	45d	1	0.61mi
11009 Ewing Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.72mi
7114 E 112th St Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,850	$1.98	25d	1	0.75mi
7119 E 111th Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	45d	1	0.82mi
10906 Ewing Ave Kansas City, MO	5.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	45d	1	0.84mi
11513 Richmond Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1114	$1,450	$1.30	16d	1	0.85mi
11206 Corrington Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.5	1176	$1,595	$1.36	25d	1	0.85mi
5705 E 109th Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1545	$1,395	$0.90	45d	1	0.86mi
7305 E 111th Ter Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	16d	1	0.92mi
11116 Bristol Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	956	$1,390	$1.45	25d	1	0.93mi
11410 Palmer Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	2.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	45d	1	0.95mi
7405 E 112th St Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,850	$1.98	45d	1	0.96mi
11421 Manchester Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1176	$1,550	$1.32	6d	1	0.97mi
11206 Norby Rd Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,375	$1.34	25d	1	0.98mi
7610 E 113th St Kansas City, MO	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,700	$1.45	45d	1	1.01mi
10712 Bennington Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	18d	1	1.03mi
10716 Ewing Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	2.0	1032	$1,550	$1.50	45d	1	1.06mi
7415 E 110th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,385	$1.18	4d	1	1.09mi
11210 Manchester Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	25d	1	1.12mi
7801 E 113th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1341	$1,450	$1.08	18d	1	1.13mi
11406 Sycamore Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	18d	1	1.14mi
11354 Sycamore Ter Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	3d	1	1.16mi
7605 E 111th Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,050	$0.89	4d	1	1.17mi
11923 Manchester Ave Grandview, MO	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,815	$1.29	45d	1	1.17mi
8006 E 118th Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,450	$1.28	22d	1	1.22mi
11934 Sycamore Ave Grandview, MO	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,806	$1.28	45d	1	1.22mi
7800 E 112th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	1.26mi
11208 Marsh Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	5d	1	1.31mi
11316 Donnelly Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	45d	1	1.32mi
8310 E 111th Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	18d	1	1.39mi
8410 Ruskin Way Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	18d	1	1.40mi
8304 E 110 Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2022-06-03
   soldstatus Closed 12-char remark

   Show marketing remark (12 chars)

   Sold on POE.

2. 2022-06-03
   listed $134,000 Active 12-char remark

   Show marketing remark (12 chars)

   Sold on POE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$749
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman Mills C-1
• NCES district ID: 2914340
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,908
• Composite: 11.2/100
• National rank: #9725
• State rank: #314 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kansas City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #2671

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kansas City, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 439,467
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 22,964
• Household income: $58,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -157.94%
• Current HPI: 277.895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2022-06-03 Listed $134,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.