20-D Yorkshire Ct · Manchester, NJ 08759

$148,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 671 sqft · Condo public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1973 $362/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the much desired extremely active gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West which is centrally located to major hwys, beaches, shopping, hospitals, doctors, dining and entertainment!! This affordable well maintained home is the perfect alternative to renting. This cutie is situated on a very peaceful and tranquil parcel. Inside you will find spacious rooms, a delightful cozy sun-porch as well as an ample amount of closet space. With over 60 clubs/activities, 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, exercise room, billiards , golf, bocce ball, lakes, (the list goes on), there is truly something for everybody. Start enjoying all that this community has to offer today.

Key facts

• $362 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (15.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $149k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,737 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-32,260
• Equity at exit: $22,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-37,953
• Equity at exit: $12,874

Cash invested: $41,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,721/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$362
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $125,737

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,225
• Closing costs: $4,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $362 · $4,344/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $148,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $148,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $148,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $148,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $148,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-04-10
   listed $148,900 Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to the much desired extremely active gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West which is centrally located to major hwys, beaches, shopping, hospitals, doctors, dining and entertainment!! This affordable well maintained home is the perfect alternative to renting. This cutie is situated on a very peaceful and tranquil parcel. Inside you will find spacious rooms, a delightful cozy sun-porch as well as an ample amount of closet space. With over 60 clubs/activities, 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, exercise room, billiards , golf, bocce ball, lakes, (the list goes on), there is truly something for everybody. Start enjoying all that this community has to offer today.

10. 2005-04-11
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,341
• − Property taxes: −$1,721
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − HOA: −$4,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,332
• Taxable loss: −$3,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $-625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+119.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $148,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,721 · +40.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.