21 Camellia Dr · Jackson, TN 38301

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1970 0.36 ac lot Est $272k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS NICE 4 BR 2 BA brick home in South Jackson off of Hart's Bridge Rd features a large living room and a den with a fireplace. Separated by a breakfast bar, the open kitchen contains stainless steel appliances and ample cabinetry. The covered patio and privacy fence allow for entertaining. A two-car garage, storage building and attic provide plenty of storage space. Call today to schedule an appointment. All information deemed accurate but is not warranted by the seller, company or REALTOR. This document is to be used for reference only and is not a valid part of the listing agreement between the buyer and seller. Square footage to be determined by appraiser.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Large living room
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DEN WITH FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 6 parking spaces; Attached 2-car garage with side-facing garage door and garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Natural gas for heating and water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / single-story; Raised foundation; Brick exterior; Shingle roof; Located on a city street (publicly maintained road) in the Southside Garden subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 105 x 150.5
• Construction: Brick construction; Raised foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; On-site storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Blinds and wood-framed windows; Gas log fireplace; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($626/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,654/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $199k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,412 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,072
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Brenda Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,819 (-5%)	4mo	$249,900	$137	83
74 Brenda Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-8%)	16mo	$270,000	$153	68
66 Brenda Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,198 (+15%)	9mo	$230,000	$105	63
260 Harts Bridge Rd	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,799 (-6%)	1mo	$282,900	$157	60
23 Penny Cv	0.22mi	4/1.5	1,652 (-14%)	6mo	$208,000	$126	59
61 Scottland Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,128 (+11%)	11mo	$195,800	$92	52
475 Harts Bridge Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-8%)	24mo	$249,900	$142	35
32 Lake Cv	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,035 (+6%)	20mo	$337,500	$166	32
106 Old Pinson Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,669 (-13%)	20mo	$247,000	$148	31
520 Chester Levee Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-10%)	20mo	$170,000	$99	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,248
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,923
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,537/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   price $224,900
9. 2026-04-10
   price $229,900
10. 2026-03-13
    price $239,000
11. 2026-01-14
    listed $250,000 Active
12. 2025-11-19
    price $264,900
13. 2025-08-19
    price $279,900
14. 2025-07-18
    price $284,900
15. 2021-04-12
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,537
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $224,900 CWTAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $229,900 CWTAR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $239,000 CWTAR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $250,000 CWTAR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $264,900 CWTAR
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $279,900 CWTAR
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $284,900 CWTAR
• 2021-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,537 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.