11639 Woodbuck Trl · Houston, TX 77013

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 6,599 sqft lot $139/sqft · 17% below area Est $206k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

Key facts

• Energy star rating
• Front and rear porch
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ENERGY STAR RATING
• ALL ELECTRIC AMENITIES
• FRONT AND REAR PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $180k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,830 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,570
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -12.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11639 Woodbuck Trl	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (-5%)	1mo	$179,900	$146	86
563 Slumberwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-2%)	3mo	$196,900	$155	85
502 Kenwood Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+0%)	1mo	$255,000	$196	83
11611 Bowhead Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+9%)	5mo	$215,000	$153	78
11651 Borderwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	1mo	$239,000	$164	67
12119 Crystalwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-6%)	1mo	$190,000	$156	64
615 Wood Smoke Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	13mo	$209,990	$151	63
631 Soft Shadows Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+2%)	9mo	$196,000	$148	54
10931 Dunvegan Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+6%)	16mo	$209,000	$152	53
12210 Woodcliff Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+14%)	1mo	$167,500	$114	49
12314 Nola Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-3%)	18mo	$229,999	$183	46
522 Soft Shadows Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+14%)	12mo	$224,999	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.28% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $23,899
• Equity at exit: $104,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $96,608
• Equity at exit: $183,779

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77013

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,955/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $115,830

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
734 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.64mi
768 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	0.69mi
778 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.69mi
664 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	783	$1,150	$1.47	7d	37	0.78mi
12221 Fleming Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	827	$1,089	$1.32	18d	19	0.78mi
670 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,380	$1.47	7d	15	0.83mi
676 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,060	$1.10	22d	1	0.85mi
676 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,060	$1.10	18d	1	0.85mi
518 Westshire Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.86mi
12200 Fleming Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,265	$1.50	2d	25	0.95mi
12417 Wood Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,300	$1.11	24d	1	1.00mi
12516 Orleans St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,275	$1.28	24d	1	1.40mi
794 Normandy St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,255	$1.69	2d	27	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

2. 2026-04-25
   status Active 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

4. 2026-04-20
   status Active 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

5. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

6. 2026-04-02
   listed $179,900 Active 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

7. 2026-04-02
   historical

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to this charming two bedroom home located on a corner lot. This one story property boasts an open concept layout, perfect for modern living. Situated conveniently close to the freeway for easy commuting, as well as just a short drive to downtown Houston. Enjoy the energy star rating and all electric amenities, along with the front and rear porch for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss out on this gem!

8. 2026-02-13
   status Active
9. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
10. 2025-08-13
    listed $199,900 Active
11. 2005-02-21
    soldstatus
12. 1989-04-19
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,955
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$7,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,259
• Household income: $47,060
• Rent vs Own: 58.1% rent · 41.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% Two or more races 51% Black 19% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Cuban 3%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 64% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.28%
• Current HPI: 312.1444
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+379.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2005-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,955 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.