11 Cozumel Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$24,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 114 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $32k · 22% under $850/mo HOA · 44% of rent ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Foreclosure, Updated oak kitchen, Laminate flooring and appliances, New skirting, and White coated roof. Community with lounge, bar, pool, billiards, gym, sauna, shuffleboard, horseshoes, bocci, tennis and picket ball.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Oak kitchen
• Community with sauna

Tags

• OAK KITCHEN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• WHITE COATED ROOF
• COMMUNITY WITH POOL
• COMMUNITY WITH GYM
• COMMUNITY WITH SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets not allowed
• Financial info: Land lease amount $750
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (HOA) with $850 fee; HOA covers association management, common areas, and grounds maintenance; Senior community; Community amenities include billiard room, bocce court, clubhouse, fitness center, non-gated community, pickleball, on-site property manager, pool, restaurant, shuffleboard, street lights, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.32%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Nuestra Calle Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	984 (-2%)	6mo	$26,000	$26	80
1 Quintana Roo Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	12mo	$18,000	$18	73
7 Reforma Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+15%)	20mo	$37,000	$32	38
5 Espanola Ln	0.68mi	2/1.5	850 (-15%)	16mo	$33,000	$39	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $26,021
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $57,257
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $504	+0% $496	+5% $487	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $420	+0% $496	+5% $572	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $502	base $496	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$2,550	$2.65	14d	1	0.54mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	14d	16	0.60mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	24d	1	0.82mi
326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,250	$2.18	24d	1	0.85mi
14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	24d	1	0.86mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	0.87mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.88mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	21d	1	0.92mi
26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	24d	1	0.95mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	0.96mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.96mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	24d	1	0.96mi
2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	24d	1	0.97mi
1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,800	$1.54	24d	1	1.00mi
336 SE Tranquilla Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	1412	$2,700	$1.91	14d	1	1.20mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	1.25mi
201 NE Midfield Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	24d	1	1.44mi
650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$2,095	$2.15	14d	1	1.50mi
213 NE Prima Vista Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$2,000	$1.98	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $24,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $29,000
18. 2026-02-24
    listed $39,000 Active
19. 2025-08-18
    historical
20. 2025-06-10
    listed $56,000 Active
21. 2025-05-01
    historical
22. 2025-04-02
    status Active
23. 2025-04-01
    historical
24. 2025-01-01
    price $56,999
25. 2024-10-04
    status Active
26. 2024-10-02
    historical
27. 2024-06-25
    status Active
28. 2024-06-24
    historical
29. 2024-03-05
    price $59,999
30. 2024-02-23
    price $60,000
31. 2024-02-23
    status Active
32. 2024-02-21
    historical
33. 2023-11-29
    price $62,000
34. 2023-11-15
    price $65,000
35. 2023-10-19
    status Active
36. 2023-09-11
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2023-08-21
    listed $68,000 Active
38. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
39. 2022-10-17
    historical Active Under Contract
40. 2022-09-27
    price $60,000
41. 2022-08-16
    status Active
42. 2022-07-29
    historical Active Under Contract
43. 2022-06-27
    listed $72,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $6,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $4,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-59.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $29,000 MCRTC
• 2026-02-24 Listed $39,000 MCRTC
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $56,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-02 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $56,999 Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-04 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-02 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-25 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-24 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $59,999 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $60,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-23 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $62,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $65,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-10-19 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2023-09-11 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $68,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-10-17 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $60,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-08-16 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2022-07-29 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed $72,000 Beaches MLS