773 Watsontown Rd · Berlin, NJ 08009

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1890 1.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and builders—opportunity awaits with this 1.08-acre residential property in Winslow Township, ideally located near the border of Berlin Borough and close to Pine Valley Airport. The existing two-story home, situated on a basement foundation, is in need of a full rehabilitation or tear-down for new construction. With its flexible potential and generous lot size, this property offers endless possibilities. An adjoining commercial property (771 Watsontown Road) featuring a large garage, office space, and open lot is also available for sale, making this a rare chance to create a dynamic live-work or investment setup.

Key facts

• Basement foundation
• Two-story home
• Full rehabilitation

Tags

• 1.08-ACRE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
• TWO-STORY HOME
• BASEMENT FOUNDATION
• FULL REHABILITATION
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $913 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.7% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#226 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.08%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,536
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Roberts Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$221	71
42 Joans Ln	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,384 (+6%)	1mo	$420,000	$303	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $33,927
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $104,773
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,218/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $913

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
519 Surrey Ave Berlin, NJ	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,900	$1.72	43d	1	0.73mi
55 Glacier Dr Berlin, NJ	2.0	2.5	1534	$2,950	$1.92	1d	1	0.78mi
159 Cross Keys Rd Unit E Berlin, NJ	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	18d	1	0.89mi
1 Sunrise Rd Berlin, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,577	$2.65	1d	19	0.90mi
122 Wilson Ln Berlin, NJ	2.0	2.5	1548	$2,875	$1.86	18d	1	1.16mi
29 E Broad St Berlin, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,149	$2.15	1d	2	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-07-27
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$22/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,218
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $8,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3418060
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,254
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8057
• State rank: #387 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #6137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,967

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 507,964 people
• By 2030: 502,182 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 485,602 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 465,630 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 419,986 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 369,492 · -27.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 63.0% · R 35.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+36.6 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.29%
• Current HPI: 304.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-27 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,218 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.