8515 Forest Wood Dr · Woodville, FL 32305

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1973 0.47 ac lot Est $222k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for a handyman or investor on this recently foreclosed home! Solid 3/2 starter home on a large lot! Open floorplan, screen porch, enclosed laundry area, Franklin stove, and more! Home has been cleared out and needs some TLC to make it a great first home or rental property. Sold AS-IS. Cash only.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Franklin stove
• Screen porch

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• SCREEN PORCH
• ENCLOSED LAUNDRY AREA
• FRANKLIN STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: For sale
• HOA & community: Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water (implied by public road and typical connections); Public sewer (implied); Electric service
• Home design: Single-story; Brick and wood siding exterior; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Screened porch; Partial fencing; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (12x11); Bedroom 3 (11x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Wood stove; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Stall shower; Window treatments; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Garage (listed as a room type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($421/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodville School (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 492 students, 70% FRL); R. Frank Nims Middle School (math 20% / reading 24%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 609 students, 82% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 45% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $175k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,299 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,272
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8519 Forest Wood Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,208 (0%)	3mo	$222,000	$184	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,097
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,737
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32305

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $85	+0% $35	+5% $-14	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-27	+0% $35	+5% $98	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $80	base $35	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 316-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2026-03-05
    soldstatus $88,100
20. 2003-10-17
    soldstatus $95,000
21. 1999-06-01
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $1,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,384
• Household income: $48,045
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 654.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 218.4834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $175,000 CATRS
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $88,100 Public Records
• 2003-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,698 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.