1303 Doran Dr · Odessa, TX 79761

$109,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 375 Days on market

Built 1956 7,013 sqft lot $92/sqft · 33% above area Est $83k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! We just listed this charming home in Odessa, TX! Situated near local parks, schools and restaurants, this ideal location puts you near almost all daily amenities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 7,013 sq ft lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 374 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.19%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,792
• List price: $109,999
• Delta: 32.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 E 14th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+1%)	22mo	$58,900	$49	43
2908 Dawn Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-3%)	23mo	$199,900	$174	43
2519 Adams Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-14%)	20mo	$175,000	$171	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $14,918
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $41,842
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79761

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,304/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $626	+0% $595	+5% $564	+10% $533
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $525	+0% $595	+5% $666	+10% $736
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $623	base $595	+0.5pp $567	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 E 23rd St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,400	$2.33	44d	1	0.15mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	14d	1	0.35mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	14d	1	0.42mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	22d	1	0.60mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	22d	1	0.65mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	44d	1	0.78mi
1219 Milburn Ave Unit K2YBUILDING K Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	0.83mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J2VBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	0.84mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	0.84mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	44d	1	0.84mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J1TBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	0.85mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	44d	1	0.90mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	22d	1	0.90mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	14d	1	0.94mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	22d	1	0.94mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	44d	1	0.97mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	44d	1	0.97mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	1.02mi
1315 N Jackson Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	14d	1	1.05mi
1501 N Texas Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	14d	1	1.06mi
701 Hillcrest Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	44d	1	1.16mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	1.22mi
1604 N Sam Houston Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$2,000	$1.75	44d	1	1.25mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,100	$1.72	22d	1	1.26mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	44d	1	1.26mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	14d	1	1.27mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	14d	18	1.30mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	22d	1	1.39mi
4217 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1203	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.44mi
4233 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	1.44mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,999 Active 375 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,999 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 371 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,999 Active 370 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,999 Active 369 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,999 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,999 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,999 Active 364 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $109,999 Active 363 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,999 Active 362 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,999 Active 361 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,999 Active 356 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,999 Active 355 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,999 Active 354 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,999 Active 353 DOM
17. 2025-06-11
    listed $109,999 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this charming home in Odessa, TX! Situated near local parks, schools and restaurants, this ideal location puts you near almost all daily amenities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,304
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $5,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $5,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,164
• Household income: $68,228
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.66%
• Current HPI: 254.9159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-11 Listed $109,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,304 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.