5517 Gilcrest Sands Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Other · 136 Days on market

Built 1987 0.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market - Don't Miss Out! Tax value is $123,300. This property is an investor's dream! Move-in ready affordable single-family manufactured home on 0.56 acres lot (real property). No HOAs. Brand new HVAC installed Jan2025. Septic has been inspected and Pumped Clean. Brand New Well Pump 2026. Rebuilt new well house. Upgrades include dry wall throughout, 2 large bedrooms with 2 full baths, solid oak wood cabinets throughout, 2 French doors in kitchen breakfast area leading out to large covered back porch 19.11 x 9.6. The home also has a covered 18.1 x. 11.1 front porch. Enjoy the yard with a rustic split rail fence lining the front and side of the property. The back yard is large w

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Manufactured home
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• MANUFACTURED HOME
• LARGE COVERED BACK PORCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• RUSTIC SPLIT RAIL FENCE
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on a private, dirt road maintained privately; Lot is cleared and grassed; Lot size approximately 0.56 acres; No pool or spa; Energy-efficient HVAC
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street open parking for 4 vehicles; Long private driveway; Private unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Septic connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); One story; Entry at front door; Faces southwest; Updated/remodeled condition; Built by Oakwood Homes
• Construction: Permanent foundation; Membrane/rubber roof; Other construction materials; Mobile home remains in place
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Private yard; Rain gutters; Storage shed(s); Covered arena; Fenced front yard (partial wood fencing)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (heat pump, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air (heat pump, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Storage; French doors; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Laundry located in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $90k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.52%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $28,133
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $85,069
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5536 Gilcrest Sands Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	23d	1	0.09mi
5660 Bauer St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	0.37mi
4901 Madison Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	14d	1	0.75mi
4240 High Stakes Cir Parkton, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	14d	9	1.18mi
5715 Walkabout Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,675	$1.47	23d	1	1.23mi
3717 Damien Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	975	$1,280	$1.31	14d	3	1.32mi
3766 Colonial Cv Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1475	$1,445	$0.98	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $90,000 Pending 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   price $90,000
8. 2026-03-17
   status Active
9. 2025-10-26
   status Pending
10. 2025-10-26
    price $125,000
11. 2025-09-22
    price $95,900
12. 2025-08-31
    listed $115,000 Active
13. 2025-06-14
    listed $125,000 Active
14. 2025-06-13
    historical
15. 2025-05-24
    historical
16. 2024-07-08
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 1995-05-02
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $262 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 181.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $6,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $90,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-10-26 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $125,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $95,900 TMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listed $115,000 TMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $125,000 TMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-05-24 Coming Soon — TMLS
• 2024-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $262 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.