2412 Shopes Creek Road Rd · Ashland, KY 41102

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1978 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perfect investment opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch is currently rented, along with a house trailer that could also be rented and a 3-bay block garage. There's potential for three income-producing properties. Don't miss the chance to check it out today!

Key facts

• 3-bay block garage
• 1.1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• INCOME-PRODUCING PROPERTIES
• 3-BAY BLOCK GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Single-story (above-grade finished area listed as 1,404)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 200 x 240

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Level interior layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.2% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd County (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #115 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.23%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,216
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2015 Oakmont Court Ct	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,900 (-13%)	0mo	$90,000	$47	51
2315 Booth Quillen Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,075 (-5%)	22mo	$345,000	$166	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $45,154
• Equity at exit: $45,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $113,805
• Equity at exit: $74,379

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41102

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $822

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $489	+0% $463	+5% $438	+10% $413
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $408	+0% $463	+5% $519	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $486	base $463	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,353
• − Management: −$1,353
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $4,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd County
• NCES district ID: 2100620
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,479
• Composite: 24.65/100
• National rank: #7625
• State rank: #115 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #14462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,331
• Population (ZIP): 20,779

Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,137 people
• By 2030: 44,585 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 41,442 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 38,313 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 31,077 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 23,432 · -49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Boyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Current HPI: 299.41
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $90,000 AABOR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2018): $885 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.