503 Mckinley Ave · Warrenton, MO 63383

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · Other public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot $151/sqft · 21% below area Est $190k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

503 McKinley offers a great opportunity for an investor, renovator, or any buyer looking to build equity with a few thoughtful updates. Situated on a tree-lined quarter-acre lot in Warrenton, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home has the kind of character and solid feel you expect from a home built in the 1950s. Original wood floors run throughout much of the main level, and the layout offers a comfortable flow with plenty of natural light. The roomy living room is highlighted by a large picture window overlooking the front yard, while the eat-in kitchen opens to the back deck via a sliding patio door, creating a great setup for outdoor dining or entertaining. All three bedrooms and the full hall bat

Key facts

• Large picture window
• Eat in kitchen
• Original wood floors

Tags

• TREE LINED LOT
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property, above-grade finished area reported as 988 (assessor)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Private ownership; City street frontage
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with concrete construction; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.5% in Warrenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#120 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Boone Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 338 students, 50% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,265 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,619
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -21.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,089
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,851
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63383

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $232	+0% $190	+5% $148	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $135	+0% $190	+5% $245	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $228	base $190	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 McKinley Ave Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0	822	$1,500	$1.82	45d	1	0.11mi
100 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0–2.5	901	$1,268	$1.41	0d	3	0.45mi
201 Bedford Dr Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$945	$1.45	45d	1	0.57mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1011 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,375	$1.28	45d	1	0.65mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1049 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.5	855	$1,195	$1.40	45d	1	0.65mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1027 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.66mi
307 Granada Dr Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,275	$1.27	45d	1	0.76mi
16901 Cattail Bottoms Dr Warrenton, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,795	$1.46	0d	7	0.81mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $149,000 Active 1545-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$646/yr (+$54/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,337
• − Management: −$1,337
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$45
• After-tax cash flow: $2,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931050
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,644
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5690
• State rank: #172 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #7300

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrenton, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,120

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.56%
• Current HPI: 191.2467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.