511 E Old Pass Rd · Long Beach, MS 39560

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1960 0.31 ac lot $147/sqft · 24% above area Est $174k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Charming and move-in ready! In a great location near many amenities...USM college on the Coast, walking distance to schools, minutes away from restaurants and beaches. This updated 4 bedroom, 1 full bath and 2 half bath home features fresh paint, durable flooring, and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. Enjoy an open living area, bright natural light, and a neutral color palette throughout. Situated on a large lot with mature trees, a new driveway, and freshly laid sod. Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Open living area
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• MINUTES AWAY FROM RESTAURANTS
• MINUTES AWAY FROM BEACHES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• OPEN LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($446/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Long Beach School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #9 of 130 in MS (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,215 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,240
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Lassere Cir	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,050 (-6%)	0mo	$150,000	$143	81
105 N Ida Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-4%)	1mo	$139,900	$129	78
104 Lassere Cir	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-5%)	15mo	$120,000	$113	74
325 Lawler Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,026 (-8%)	0mo	$124,900	$122	72
914 Park Row Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,137 (+2%)	10mo	$150,000	$132	69
216 E 3rd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,071 (-4%)	3mo	$245,000	$229	63
310 Charles Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,271 (+14%)	3mo	$148,999	$117	61
421 E 4th St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+5%)	13mo	$325,000	$276	56
103 Mccaughan Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+12%)	10mo	$189,000	$151	55
392 Lawler Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+15%)	12mo	$210,000	$164	46
1212 7th St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	14mo	$171,000	$143	44
1158 E Old Pass Rd	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,206 (+8%)	13mo	$189,000	$157	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,870
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,565
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39560

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,645/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Lawler Ave Long Beach, MS	2.0	1.0	822	$1,250	$1.52	13d	1	0.28mi
1206 Beach Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	13d	1	1.22mi
1412 Jo Ellen Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,050	$0.82	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $164,900 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome home! Charming and move-in ready! In a great location near many amenities...USM college on the Coast, walking distance to schools, minutes away from restaurants and beaches. This updated 4 bedroom, 1 full bath and 2 half bath home features fresh paint, durable flooring, and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. Enjoy an open living area, bright natural light, and a neutral color palette throughout. Situated on a large lot with mature trees, a new driveway, and freshly laid sod. Schedule your appointment today!

17. 2026-02-13
    historical
18. 2025-11-02
    price $164,900
19. 2025-10-10
    price $169,900
20. 2025-09-03
    price $184,900
21. 2025-08-13
    listed $189,900 Active
22. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus
23. 2007-11-02
    soldstatus
24. 2006-12-14
    soldstatus
25. 2006-11-27
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,645
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$569
• After-tax cash flow: $1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 2802670
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,548
• Composite: 43.68/100
• National rank: #2955
• State rank: #9 of 130 in MS

Livability — Long Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8554

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Beach, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 18,702
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 18,702
• Household income: $69,769
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 658.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.49%
• Current HPI: 195.0807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+139.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $164,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $164,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $169,900 MLSU
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $184,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-13 Listed $189,900 MLSU
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-14 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-11-27 Listed $69,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,645 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.