404 Mckinley Ave · Bisbee, AZ 85603

$112,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1916 8,517 sqft lot $99/sqft · 39% below area Est $185k · 39% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a reasonable priced home or investment, this is it. This 3 bedroom 2 bath is in need of a little love. With some elbow grease and sweat equity this can be a great rental or home. This property has an oversized lot with an outhouse! Inside you'll find good sized bedrooms and bathroom. One of the rooms would be perfect for a home office! Walking distance to local eateries and grocery store. Home being sold as-is Owner/Agent

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• Home office
• 8,517 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace; Wall furnace; Ceiling fans; Window/wall air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-315/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.1% in Bisbee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#151 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bisbee Unified District (4169) (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #218 of 249 in AZ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lowell School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #174 of 218 statewide, top 81%, 116 students, 66% FRL); Bisbee High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 352 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $781 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,500 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,182
• List price: $112,900
• Delta: -39.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 N Cleveland Ave	0.14mi	3/1.2	1,018 (-11%)	12mo	$50,000	$49	64
125 San Jose Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,051 (-8%)	12mo	$109,000	$104	45
1458 S Calle DE Rosas --	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,073 (-6%)	17mo	$192,000	$179	41
1404 S Naco Hwy	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-9%)	10mo	$185,000	$179	39
1422 S Naco Hwy S	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+9%)	18mo	$170,000	$137	38
504 Alegre Pl	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,297 (+14%)	5mo	$199,000	$153	36
442 Cochise Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	970 (-15%)	17mo	$145,000	$149	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-20,006
• Equity at exit: $16,834

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-19,737
• Equity at exit: $9,762

Cash invested: $31,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85603

• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$592
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $108,264

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $6	+0% $-26	+5% $-58	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-60	+0% $-26	+5% $7	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $2	base $-26	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,225
• Closing costs: $3,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 N Harrison Ave Bisbee, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$845	$0.94	44d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $112,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $112,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $112,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $112,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $112,900 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $133,900 Active 439-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,324
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$811
• − Management: −$811
• − Depreciation: −$3,284
• Taxable loss: −$2,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$555
• After-tax cash flow: $240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bisbee Unified District (4169)
• NCES district ID: 0401180
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $33,316
• Composite: 11.73/100
• National rank: #9688
• State rank: #218 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bisbee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #17700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bisbee, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,798

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 23% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.64%
• Current HPI: 168.8806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $112,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $133,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.