20837 Walnut St · Dunnellon, FL 34431

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1923 6,250 sqft lot Est $210k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated while retaining select elements of its historic charm, this unique Dunnellon home offers the perfect blend of character and modern convenience. Featuring an open kitchen, decorative fireplace, two bedrooms, two fully renovated bathrooms, and a flexible bonus room that could serve as a third bedroom, office, nursery, or hobby space, this move-in-ready property provides comfort, charm, and versatility. Additional features include inside laundry and both interior and exterior storage. Relax on the inviting front porch and enjoy the warmth and character this home offers. Located in the heart of Dunnellon, you'll appreciate being just minutes from shopping, dining, medi

Key facts

• Decorative fireplace
• Exterior storage
• Flexible bonus room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• INTERIOR STORAGE
• EXTERIOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RBO
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Storage structure on property; Cleared and landscaped lot; Located in a historic district; City limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed (appliances listed: Range, Refrigerator)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Thermostat; Window treatments; Shutters; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 580 students, 61% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12057% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $225k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,812 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,045
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20327 The Granada	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (+8%)	14mo	$200,000	$145	45
11765 Bostick St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+12%)	10mo	$235,000	$165	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-40,052
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,775
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $215,145

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $8	+0% $-55	+5% $-119	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-121	+0% $-55	+5% $10	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $2	base $-55	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2186 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,950	$1.35	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $224,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$64/mo · 69.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunnellon, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed for Rent $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,104 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.