Apex (Adams) Plan · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40475

$89,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured · 183 Days on market

Good condition $467/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located halfway between Richmond and Lexington, just off I-75 at exit 95, Adams Pointe is surrounded by beautiful farmland and rolling hills in a quiet neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. Community Amenities Playground Schools Whilhall Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High School

Key facts

• Listed 183 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $79,195 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,594
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,225
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40475

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$467
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $89,995

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $219	+0% $188	+5% $157	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $124	+0% $188	+5% $252	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $211	base $188	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,499
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Foxborough Way Richmond, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	15d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $467 · $5,604/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,995 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,995 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,995 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,995 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,995 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,995 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,995 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,995 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,995 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,995 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,995 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,995 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,995 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,995 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,995 Active 164 DOM
16. 2025-12-17
    listed $89,995 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Located halfway between Richmond and Lexington, just off I-75 at exit 95, Adams Pointe is surrounded by beautiful farmland and rolling hills in a quiet neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. Community Amenities Playground Schools Whilhall Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High School

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$5,604
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Apex plan manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and some updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve both the aesthetic and energy efficiency of the home.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve both the aesthetic and energy efficiency of the home. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 93,568 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,961
• Household income: $63,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.04%
• Current HPI: 245.8489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $89,995 Zillow