16310 Lake Wenatchee Hwy · Leavenworth, WA 98826

$195,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1990 9.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity to own 1/4 share of a 5 bedroom 2 bath, vacation home on 9 private acres near Lake Wenatchee: giving you one week of use per month. Oscar Fuentes was a master craftsman, artisan builder, and expert in stone masonry. He called this place La Chosa— The Shack. It is anything but. Built painstakingly from locally sourced materials: river rock, massive hand-milled beams, and lumber from trees felled on site. La Chosa is the kind of home that simply isn't built anymore. Every stone fireplace, every shower, every wall tells a story of craft and intention. The main floor opens into a combined kitchen and dining room alongside a living room anchored by a grand stone fireplac

Key facts

• Private acres
• River rock
• Master craftsman

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• MASTER CRAFTSMAN
• STONE MASONRY
• LOCALLY SOURCED MATERIALS
• RIVER ROCK
• HAND MILLED BEAMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR10 (county jurisdiction)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual well (water); Septic tank (sewer); Electric and wood energy sources; Power provided by Chelan PUD; LocalTel internet
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story house; Entry on main level; Built on lot; Very good condition; Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Built circa 1990; Stone and wood construction; Metal roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Stone and wood exterior; Deck; Hot tub/spa; Sprinkler system; High-speed internet available; Wooded lot; Level topography; Dead-end street access; Dirt road access; Open space nearby; Secluded setting; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (1 on main level, 4 on upper level; primary on second level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 2 showers; 1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining room; Fireplace; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $195,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,701,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.2% in Leavenworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#68 in WA, #1,224 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cascade School District (town): math 59% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #43 of 291 in WA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alpine Lakes Elementary (253 students, 44% FRL); Cascade High School (397 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,701,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16216 N Shore Dr	0.20mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,636 (-12%)	10mo	$1,055,000	$400	47
22910 Lake Wenatchee Hwy	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,103 (+3%)	16mo	$1,760,000	$567	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,781
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,750
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98826

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,106/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $989	-5% $395	+0% $340	+5% $284	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $229	+0% $340	+5% $450	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $389	base $340	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $195,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-25
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$9,106
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,676
• − Management: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,423
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cascade School District
• NCES district ID: 5300950
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,636
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #2630
• State rank: #43 of 291 in WA

Livability — Leavenworth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #1224

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chelan County · 53,031 people
• City population: 7,605
• Metro: Wenatchee, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,605
• Household income: $87,646
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.35%
• Current HPI: 235.1186
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Wenatchee, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,106 · -16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.