417 W Nelson St · Marion, IN 46952

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1920 5,808 sqft lot $30/sqft · 33% below area Est $83k · 46% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

Key facts

• Hardwood floors
• Enclosed front porch
• 5,808 sq ft lot

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 8.2% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#337 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion Community Schools (town): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #277 of 301 in IN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 52 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.61%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,486
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -46.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 N F St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	2mo	$164,900	$117	68
614 W 5th St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,574 (+6%)	0mo	$99,000	$63	66
820 N Oxford Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,492 (+1%)	2mo	$155,000	$104	65
716 W 7th St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,409 (-5%)	3mo	$65,000	$46	63
617 Berkley Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,564 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$93	62
510 E Grant St	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,656 (+12%)	1mo	$47,000	$28	48
1015 W 3rd St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,298 (-12%)	8mo	$76,900	$59	47
916 N Oxford Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	3mo	$142,000	$109	39
1315 W Euclid Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,308 (-12%)	13mo	$10,000	$8	38
1134 W 3rd St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,702 (+15%)	12mo	$139,000	$82	35
607 N Washington St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	11mo	$16,900	$10	35
518 E Marshall St	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,267 (-14%)	6mo	$100,000	$79	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $29,213
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $72,562
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46952

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,296/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $458

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $598	-5% $585	+0% $572	+5% $559	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $525	+0% $572	+5% $619	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $584	base $572	+0.5pp $560	+1.0pp $549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 E Sherman St Marion, IN	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,050	$0.97	45d	1	0.90mi
2116 W 2nd St Marion, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	764	$945	$1.24	45d	1	1.35mi
2145 W 2nd St Marion, IN	3.0	1.5	1377	$1,650	$1.20	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

2. 2026-04-15
   price $44,900 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

3. 2026-03-11
   price $49,900 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

4. 2026-03-11
   status Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

5. 2026-01-18
   historical 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

6. 2025-12-23
   status Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

7. 2025-11-20
   historical 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

8. 2025-10-28
   price $64,900 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

9. 2025-09-24
   listed $69,900 Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great location within walking distance of downtown. This 3 bedroom has tons of potential and will make an excellent investment. Home features a large enclosed front porch, hardwood floors, and much more. You will be hard pressed to find a better deal in the area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,296
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $5,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1806390
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,415
• Composite: 17.13/100
• National rank: #9115
• State rank: #277 of 301 in IN

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #13006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, IN
• County: Grant County · 41,561 people
• City population: 41,561
• Metro: Marion, IN
• Population (ZIP): 18,189
• Household income: $52,880
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,394 people
• By 2030: 62,145 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 57,252 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 52,968 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 45,986 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 39,400 · -38.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.2% · R 70.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.69%
• Current HPI: 180.1174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-35.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $44,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $49,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $64,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed $69,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,296 · +149.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.