1615 W Chestnut St · Marion, IL 62959

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Other · 125 Days on market

Built 1950 0.25 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom one bath home in the heart of Marion! Close to downtown, the high school and the Harry Crisp sports complex. Home needs updating but could be what it once was with some work! Outside has a nice detached garage, back yard space and nice curb appeal!

Key facts

• Back yard space
• Curb appeal
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• BACK YARD SPACE
• CURB APPEAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.0% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#896 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Marion CUSD 2 (urban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #317 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.24%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $21,413
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $74,754
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62959

• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,924/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 W Central St Marion, IL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,175	$1.00	43d	1	0.46mi
908 N Bentley St Unit 908-F Marion, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	43d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   Two bedroom one bath home in the heart of Marion! Close to downtown, the high school and the Harry Crisp sports complex. Home needs updating but could be what it once was with some work! Outside has a nice detached garage, back yard space and nice curb appeal!

9. 2026-03-29
   price $50,000 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   Two bedroom one bath home in the heart of Marion! Close to downtown, the high school and the Harry Crisp sports complex. Home needs updating but could be what it once was with some work! Outside has a nice detached garage, back yard space and nice curb appeal!

10. 2026-01-30
    price $69,900 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Two bedroom one bath home in the heart of Marion! Close to downtown, the high school and the Harry Crisp sports complex. Home needs updating but could be what it once was with some work! Outside has a nice detached garage, back yard space and nice curb appeal!

11. 2026-01-07
    listed $99,900 Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Two bedroom one bath home in the heart of Marion! Close to downtown, the high school and the Harry Crisp sports complex. Home needs updating but could be what it once was with some work! Outside has a nice detached garage, back yard space and nice curb appeal!

12. 2024-07-06
    historical
13. 2024-05-21
    price $38,000
14. 2024-05-09
    listed $48,000 Active
15. 2023-05-17
    historical
16. 2023-05-17
    historical
17. 2023-04-06
    price
18. 2023-03-13
    listed Active
19. 2017-04-07
    soldstatus $57,500
20. 2017-04-05
    soldstatus $57,500
21. 2017-04-05
    soldstatus $57,500
22. 2016-12-07
    listed $59,500
23. 2016-12-07
    listed $59,500
24. 2010-12-22
    soldstatus $55,000
25. 2010-12-22
    soldstatus $55,000
26. 2010-12-21
    soldstatus $55,000
27. 2010-10-29
    listed $59,500
28. 2010-10-29
    listed $59,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,924
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$967
• After-tax cash flow: $3,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion CUSD 2
• NCES district ID: 1724600
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,221
• Composite: 22.07/100
• National rank: #8189
• State rank: #317 of 620 in IL

Livability — Marion

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #17434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, IL
• County: Williamson County · 38,451 people
• City population: 27,793
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• Population (ZIP): 27,793
• Household income: $71,063
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 763.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.41%
• Current HPI: 137.5955
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.40%
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $99,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-06 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $38,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Listed $48,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-17 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-13 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-05 Sold (MLS) $57,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-05 Sold (MLS) $57,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-07 Listed $59,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-07 Listed $59,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-29 Listed $59,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-29 Listed $59,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,924 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.