1030 E Madison Drive Dr · Sevierville, TN 37876

$419,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1984 1.77 ac lot $515/sqft · 68% above area Est $568k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

Key facts

• New hvac
• Flat lot
• Combo washer dryer

Tags

• FLAT LOT
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM
• FLOORING IN DINING ROOM
• COMBO WASHER DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (50.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (57.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (57.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 1.6% in Sevierville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#323 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $419k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,811 (57.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.09%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,713
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -26.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $129,006
• Equity at exit: $377,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $444,401
• Equity at exit: $814,025

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1142
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,285/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-1,475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,665

Max offer price $205,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,186	-5% $-1,330	+0% $-1,475	+5% $-1,620	+10% $-1,765
Rent	-10% $-1,617	-5% $-1,546	+0% $-1,475	+5% $-1,404	+10% $-1,333
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,264	-0.5pp $-1,369	base $-1,475	+0.5pp $-1,584	+1.0pp $-1,694

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $419,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $419,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $419,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $419,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

18. 2026-05-01
    price $439,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

19. 2026-04-09
    price $455,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

20. 2026-03-18
    price $469,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $499,000 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    OWNER/AGENT FLAT LOT AROUND CABIN, NEW LAST, YEAR HVAC, WATER HEATER, FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM, COMBO WASHER/DRYER. BACK HVAC 4 YEARS OLD, WELL PUMP 3 YEARS OLD. 4 BED 2 BATH 1.77 ACRE LOT, COUNTRY SETTING

22. 2025-11-06
    soldstatus $245,000
23. 2009-09-14
    listed $239,950
24. 2007-02-22
    listed $249,900
25. 2005-07-26
    listed $329,000
26. 2003-02-05
    soldstatus $39,000
27. 1999-09-17
    soldstatus $75,500
28. 1995-05-24
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$6,285
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$25,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Sevierville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #21663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+575.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $419,000 GSMAR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $439,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $455,000 GSMAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $469,000 GSMAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $499,000 GSMAR
• 2025-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-14 Listed $239,950 Knoxville MLS
• 2007-02-22 Listed $249,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2005-07-26 Listed $329,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 1995-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.