1673 Elk Run Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28312

$309,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,231 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $332k · 7% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Covered entry
• 36 inch cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED ENTRY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• 36 INCH CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pool or spa; No other structures; No horse amenities; Zoning: SF15C
• HOA & community: HOA (Neighborhood & Associates); Annual association fee of $350; Community sidewalks; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Site-built home; One and one-half stories; Built by Smith Douglas Homes (Caldwell E model); Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built by Smith Douglas Homes
• Exterior features: Patio; Partially wooded lot; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Pantry; Granite and quartz counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary/main bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump); Zoned heating; Central air conditioning; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Quartz counters; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Pantry; Primary bedroom on main level; Recessed lighting; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Armstrong Elementary (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #673 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 478 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,473 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,419
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1664 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,231 (0%)	1mo	$339,900	$152	98
1648 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,225 (-0%)	3mo	$305,150	$137	96
1632 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,231 (0%)	8mo	$332,295	$149	92
1660 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,372 (+6%)	1mo	$329,900	$139	82
1629 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,372 (+6%)	3mo	$329,900	$139	82
1669 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,053 (-8%)	0mo	$322,865	$157	81
1644 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,053 (-8%)	4mo	$324,900	$158	77
1612 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,053 (-8%)	9mo	$322,995	$157	73
1620 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,053 (-8%)	9mo	$317,440	$155	71
1652 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (+15%)	3mo	$355,900	$139	66
1611 Eagle Hill Rd	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (+15%)	3mo	$330,340	$129	64
1636 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (+15%)	8mo	$348,220	$136	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $138,997
• Equity at exit: $279,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $432,884
• Equity at exit: $602,068

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,748

Max offer price $242,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-254	-5% $-361	+0% $-468	+5% $-575	+10% $-683
Rent	-10% $-639	-5% $-554	+0% $-468	+5% $-383	+10% $-298
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-390	base $-468	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1303 Middle Rd Eastover, NC	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,195	$1.13	25d	1	0.74mi
848 Bellingham Way Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,100	$0.91	25d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $309,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $319,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $324,900 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    price $324,900 1394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

    Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

19. 2026-05-22
    price $324,900

    Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

    Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

20. 2026-05-19
    listed $336,900 Active 1394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

    Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

21. 2026-05-19
    listed $336,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

    Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

22. 2026-05-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

    Memorial Day Savings are Here!! Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Caldwell E at Lexington Woods --a thoughtfully designed home that perfectly balances comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, the charming covered entry welcomes you into a warm and inviting foyer, complemented by a beautiful formal dining room ideal for hosting holiday gatherings or intimate dinner parties. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire first floor, delivering both modern elegance and lasting durability. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen shines with 36-inch cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Open to the spacious family room, this inviting design ensures you're always part of the conversation--whether you're preparing meals or relaxing with guests. The main-level owner's suite offers a private retreat, thoughtfully tucked away for added tranquility. Enjoy a spa-like ensuite featuring a double vanity, walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and an oversized loft--perfect for a media room, home office, playroom, or cozy lounge area. The Caldwell E combines smart design with stylish finishes to create a home that truly lives beautifully. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

23. 2026-05-13
    price $334,900
24. 2026-05-07
    price $336,900
25. 2026-05-02
    price $341,890
26. 2026-05-01
    price $341,900
27. 2026-04-24
    price $346,010
28. 2026-04-22
    price $346,015
29. 2026-04-18
    price $346,010
30. 2026-04-17
    price $346,015
31. 2026-04-16
    price $346,010
32. 2026-04-11
    price $346,000
33. 2026-04-10
    price $346,010
34. 2026-04-09
    price $346,025
35. 2026-04-08
    price $346,020
36. 2026-03-26
    listed $346,010 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$11,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• City population: 226,118
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $324,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $324,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $336,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $336,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $334,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $336,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $341,890 TMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $341,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $346,010 TMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $346,015 TMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $346,010 TMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $346,015 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $346,010 TMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $346,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $346,010 TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $346,025 TMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $346,020 TMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $346,010 TMLS