3518 Stonehenge · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$307,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $238k · 29% over $168/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stone & Wood TOWNHOME with 3 finished levels. The first level offers a private foyer, spacious living room with fireplace, eat-in kitchen with range, refrigerator, microwave and dishwasher plus a dining area. Deck located just off the kitchen. Half bath on main level. Upper-level features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The lower level offers a family room, full 3RD bath, storage area and patio. Recent updates include a roof approx 2 years old, a heat pump approx 1.5 years old, refrigerator and dishwasher replaced in 2026.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Family room
• Deck

Tags

• PRIVATE FOYER
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• DECK
• FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-559 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Penn Forest Elementary (math 83% / reading 88%, grade A+, #61 of 1,108 statewide, top 6%, 400 students, 26% FRL); Cave Spring Middle (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 765 students, 30% FRL); Cave Spring High (math 86% / reading 90%, grade A, #13 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 1,056 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $307k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $196,731 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,080
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3400 Morning Dove Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+6%)	13mo	$252,500	$155	52
3263 Forest Ridge Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-10%)	7mo	$199,000	$144	47
3373 Morning Dove Rd	0.53mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,434 (-7%)	14mo	$270,000	$188	47
3265 Forest Ridge Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-10%)	15mo	$215,000	$155	40
3325 Forest Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-10%)	21mo	$208,500	$150	34
3373 Forest Ct	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (-10%)	22mo	$205,000	$147	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-85,583
• Equity at exit: $45,775

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-121,265
• Equity at exit: $26,544

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,492/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$168
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $208,195

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-472	+0% $-559	+5% $-646	+10% $-733
Rent	-10% $-715	-5% $-637	+0% $-559	+5% $-482	+10% $-404
Rate	-1.0pp $-405	-0.5pp $-481	base $-559	+0.5pp $-639	+1.0pp $-720

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3413 Stonehenge Sq Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,900	$1.25	44d	1	0.07mi
3273 Forest Ridge Rd Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,850	$1.48	21d	1	0.52mi
3620 Manassas Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,300	$1.92	44d	1	0.79mi
3101 Honeywood Ln Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	919	$1,690	$1.84	14d	7	0.88mi
3464 Colonial Ave Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	14d	5	0.89mi
5260 Crossbow Cir Unit 8A Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,450	$1.23	21d	1	0.91mi
3345 Circle Brook Dr Cave Spring, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,920	$1.92	14d	11	0.94mi
3602 Colonial Green Cir SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,622	$1.57	14d	1	1.28mi
3711 Crescent Ridge Dr SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,899	$1.30	21d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $168 · $2,016/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $307,000 Active
3. 2014-12-25
   historical
4. 2014-06-25
   listed $185,500
5. 2012-07-31
   historical
6. 2012-01-25
   listed $169,900
7. 2005-03-17
   soldstatus $139,000
8. 2005-03-01
   soldstatus $139,000
9. 2005-02-18
   listed $139,950
10. 2001-05-30
    soldstatus $100,000
11. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus $100,000
12. 2000-10-20
    listed $112,500
13. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $77,500
14. 1986-02-01
    soldstatus $81,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$2,492
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − HOA: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$12,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+275.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-03 Listed $307,000 MLSRV
• 2014-12-25 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2014-06-25 Listed $185,500 MLSRV
• 2012-07-31 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2012-01-25 Listed $169,900 MLSRV
• 2005-03-17 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MLSRV
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-18 Listed $139,950 MLSRV
• 2001-05-30 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MLSRV
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-20 Listed $112,500 MLSRV
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,492 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.