2650 W Union Hills Dr #118 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition $46/sqft · 5% below area Est $37k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom mobile home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! The exterior boasts a tandem carport, an access ramp, and a welcoming front porch. Inside, you'll find an open layout with vaulted ceilings, a soothing palette, and warm wood flooring. The kitchen comes with solid surface counters, crisp white cabinetry, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Both bedrooms offer a cozy and private retreat. You'll also find a laundry room for added convenience. The storehouse provides a space for a workshop or extra storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a pool, Jacuzzi, golf course, fitness center, billiard room , bounce ball, bingo, dance floor, regular community events and more. Great location near shopping, dining, and highways , ,perfect for active adult living! Priced to sell , make it yours now !

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $35k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.34%
• DSCR: 5.82
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,001
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -5.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #271	0.08mi	2/1.0	744 (-3%)	14mo	$18,922	$25	80
2650 W Union Hills Dr #263	0.07mi	2/2.0	780 (+2%)	17mo	$38,000	$49	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #323	0.08mi	2/2.0	720 (-6%)	15mo	$32,000	$44	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #22	0.08mi	2/2.0	720 (-6%)	19mo	$52,000	$72	66
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.09mi	2/2.0	868 (+13%)	7mo	$40,500	$47	64
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (+9%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $46,520
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.90×
• Total profit: $97,004
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	24d	1	0.28mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.46mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	2d	80	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	3d	19	0.58mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	8d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	8d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	15d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	17d	1	0.79mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	0.82mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	44d	1	0.82mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	2d	69	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	44d	1	0.85mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	22d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	44d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	24d	1	0.96mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	2d	32	1.11mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	2d	2	1.12mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,135	$1.52	3d	2	1.12mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.13mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	24d	1	1.16mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.19mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	2d	34	1.21mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	3d	20	1.25mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	44d	1	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	13d	2	1.32mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	3d	1	1.33mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.33mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.33mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	18d	2	1.34mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	44d	1	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	22d	1	1.42mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	2d	40	1.46mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    status Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom mobile home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! The exterior boasts a tandem carport, an access ramp, and a welcoming front porch. Inside, you'll find an open layout with vaulted ceilings, a soothing palette, and warm wood flooring. The kitchen comes with solid surface counters, crisp white cabinetry, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Both bedrooms offer a cozy and private retreat. You'll also find a laundry room for added convenience. The storehouse provides a space for a workshop or extra storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a pool, Jacuzzi, golf course, fitness center, billiard room , bounce ball, bingo, dance floor, regular community events and more. Great location near shopping, dining, and highways , ,perfect for active adult living! Priced to sell , make it yours now !

16. 2026-05-05
    historical 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom mobile home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! The exterior boasts a tandem carport, an access ramp, and a welcoming front porch. Inside, you'll find an open layout with vaulted ceilings, a soothing palette, and warm wood flooring. The kitchen comes with solid surface counters, crisp white cabinetry, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Both bedrooms offer a cozy and private retreat. You'll also find a laundry room for added convenience. The storehouse provides a space for a workshop or extra storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a pool, Jacuzzi, golf course, fitness center, billiard room , bounce ball, bingo, dance floor, regular community events and more. Great location near shopping, dining, and highways , ,perfect for active adult living! Priced to sell , make it yours now !

17. 2026-04-19
    listed $35,000 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom mobile home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! The exterior boasts a tandem carport, an access ramp, and a welcoming front porch. Inside, you'll find an open layout with vaulted ceilings, a soothing palette, and warm wood flooring. The kitchen comes with solid surface counters, crisp white cabinetry, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Both bedrooms offer a cozy and private retreat. You'll also find a laundry room for added convenience. The storehouse provides a space for a workshop or extra storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a pool, Jacuzzi, golf course, fitness center, billiard room , bounce ball, bingo, dance floor, regular community events and more. Great location near shopping, dining, and highways , ,perfect for active adult living! Priced to sell , make it yours now !

18. 2026-04-04
    historical
19. 2026-02-04
    status Active
20. 2026-02-03
    historical
21. 2025-10-10
    listed $40,000 Active
22. 2025-04-26
    historical
23. 2025-03-16
    price $35,000
24. 2025-02-16
    price $37,000
25. 2025-01-04
    listed $40,000 Active
26. 2024-09-04
    price $39,900
27. 2024-09-04
    historical
28. 2024-08-02
    price $39,999
29. 2024-07-06
    price $44,990
30. 2024-06-29
    price $47,900
31. 2024-06-14
    price $48,000
32. 2024-06-08
    price $48,500
33. 2024-06-04
    price $48,990
34. 2024-05-31
    price $49,500
35. 2024-05-18
    listed $49,990 Active
36. 2021-10-15
    soldstatus $14,000 Closed
37. 2021-10-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
38. 2021-09-17
    price $9,950
39. 2021-09-03
    status Active
40. 2021-08-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
41. 2021-07-28
    price $15,750
42. 2021-07-10
    price $17,750
43. 2021-07-06
    price $21,995
44. 2021-04-02
    listed $24,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $10,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,567
• After-tax cash flow: $8,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The kitchen and bathrooms are well-maintained, and the exterior appears in good condition. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Resale Install new flooring — Improves aesthetics and can add value.
• Resale Upgrade appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Improves aesthetics and can add value. ↑
• Resale Upgrade appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+40.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-16 Price Changed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $37,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $39,999 ARMLS
• 2024-07-06 Price Changed $44,990 ARMLS
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $47,900 ARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $48,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $48,500 ARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $48,990 ARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $49,500 ARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Listed $49,990 ARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $14,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-09-17 Price Changed $9,950 ARMLS
• 2021-09-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-08-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-07-28 Price Changed $15,750 ARMLS
• 2021-07-10 Price Changed $17,750 ARMLS
• 2021-07-06 Price Changed $21,995 ARMLS
• 2021-04-02 Listed $24,900 ARMLS