602 Copperhead Ln · Fort Davis, TX 79734

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1980 0.43 ac lot ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Single-story residential property featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional layout. Interior spaces receive natural light and are arranged with defined living and sleeping areas. Covered parking is provided by a detached two-car carport. The lot includes outdoor space suitable for general use. Located within Fort Davis with access to local services and regional routes.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Natural light
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COVERED PARKING
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• ACCESS TO LOCAL SERVICES
• REGIONAL ROUTES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Tile flooring; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,258 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ft Davis ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #942 of 1,141 in TX (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Jeff Davis County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.55%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $22,801
• Equity at exit: $31,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $62,406
• Equity at exit: $45,395

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79734

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,747/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $79,900
3. 2026-04-09
   price $89,900
4. 2026-03-27
   price $99,900
5. 2026-03-12
   price $109,900
6. 2026-02-28
   price $114,900
7. 2026-02-18
   price $124,900
8. 2026-01-16
   listed $134,900 Active
9. 2003-11-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,747
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$514
• After-tax cash flow: $2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft Davis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,341
• Composite: 30.84/100
• National rank: #11376
• State rank: #942 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Fort Davis

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1258
• US rank: #21905

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Davis, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,616

Population outlook (Jeff Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,052 people
• By 2030: 1,942 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 1,710 · -16.7%
• By 2050: 1,478 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 957 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 727 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 24%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jeff Davis

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.5% · R 59.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+21.7 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Current HPI: 105.8311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $79,900 PBBOR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $89,900 PBBOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $99,900 PBBOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $109,900 PBBOR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $114,900 PBBOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $124,900 PBBOR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $134,900 PBBOR
• 2003-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,747 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.