14 Lilac Ln · Troy, NY 12180

$239,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1909 6,098 sqft lot Est $288k · 17% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Investors or owner-occupants, don't miss this versatile multi-family home. This well-maintained duplex features two spacious units, one 3 bedroom downstairs and one 2 bedroom upstairs each with a full bathroom. The upstairs unit includes a huge porch off the back, washer/dryer hookups, a range, and a refrigerator, while the downstairs unit comes fully equipped with washer/dryer, refrigerator, dishwasher, central air and a storage area--perfect for convenience and functionality. Projected rent is $1600/month each. Both units enjoy bright, open layouts and flexible living spaces. Additional features include a fenced yard (approximately 85% enclosed), a shed, and a carport. The shed and backya

Key facts

• Electric outlets
• Fenced yard
• Huge porch

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED DUPLEX
• HUGE PORCH
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• FENCED YARD
• ELECTRIC OUTLETS
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $501/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.3% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#88 in NY, #1,350 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Troy City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #467 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,522/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2698% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.92%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Ford Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-6%)	6mo	$270,000	$150	68
36 Kinloch Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+9%)	2mo	$308,000	$147	48
6 Fonda Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (-10%)	21mo	$372,000	$215	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $31,904
• Equity at exit: $35,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $139,399
• Equity at exit: $20,708

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12180

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $239,500

Occupancy floor 67%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,846
1× unit	2	1	$1,676
Total (2 units)			$3,522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
669 Pawling Ave Troy, NY	4.0	1.0	1700	$2,350	$1.38	19d	1	0.13mi
54 Main Ave Wynantskill, NY	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	14d	1	0.58mi
102 Main Ave Wynantskill, NY	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,600	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
100 Vandenburgh Pl Troy, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1124	$2,182	$1.94	14d	9	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-07
   price $239,500
4. 2025-12-19
   listed $249,500 Active
5. 2025-12-19
   historical
6. 2025-10-16
   price $249,500
7. 2025-10-16
   price $249,500
8. 2025-09-25
   listed $269,000 Active
9. 2025-09-18
   listed $269,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,100 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,100 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,381
• − Management: −$3,381
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable income: $8,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $9,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628950
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,143
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4318
• State rank: #467 of 590 in NY

Livability — Troy

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #1350

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, NY
• County: Rensselaer County · 75,590 people
• City population: 53,479
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,479
• Household income: $75,851
• Rent vs Own: 52.1% rent · 47.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2698.0

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.53%
• Current HPI: 285.0762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $239,500 Global MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $249,500 Global MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $249,500 HVCRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $249,500 Global MLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $269,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $269,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,100 · -25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.