138 W Stockbridge Landing Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$729,700

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1997 10,097 sqft lot $277/sqft · 49% above area Est $490k · 49% over $71/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes reported for 2025
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $850

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Built in 1997; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Back yard fencing; Wooded lot; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road access; Private in-ground pool with spa (pool/spa combo)

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16x14); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (each 12x12)
• Flooring: Laminate; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Hot tub / spa; Gas fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $730k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $666k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $666k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,664/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($162k/yr) (locally 616% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($708k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 16116% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $666,350 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,343
• List price: $729,700
• Delta: 48.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 Alden Glen Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,708 (+3%)	2mo	$485,000	$179	87
68 E Sandalbranch Cir	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,996 (+14%)	1mo	$862,000	$288	65
175 W Bristol Oak Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,566 (-2%)	2mo	$575,000	$224	65
26 Serene Creek Pl	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,570 (-2%)	2mo	$525,000	$204	64
19 E New Avery Pl	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,440 (-7%)	1mo	$545,000	$223	62
198 Lattice Gate St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,710 (+3%)	2mo	$785,000	$290	61
158 Lattice Gate St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,714 (+3%)	0mo	$580,000	$214	56
85 Summer Lark Pl	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,258 (-14%)	0mo	$425,000	$188	54
51 Pipers Meadow St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,567 (-2%)	3mo	$555,000	$216	54
35 Valley Mead Pl	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,364 (-10%)	0mo	$475,000	$201	53
118 W Hobbit Glen Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,944 (+12%)	4mo	$525,000	$178	45
47 S Bristol Oak Cir	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,980 (+13%)	3mo	$649,000	$218	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-109,633
• Equity at exit: $108,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-115,098
• Equity at exit: $63,091

Cash invested: $204,316 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,827
• Tax from tax record: −$747 /mo · $8,963/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,399
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,264

Max offer price $729,700

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,425
• Closing costs: $21,891
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	0.27mi
175 Merryweather Pl Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,990	$1.10	17d	1	0.79mi
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $729,700 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $729,700 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $729,700 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $729,700 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $729,700 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $729,700 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $729,700 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $729,700 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $729,700 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $729,700 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $729,700 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $729,700 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,700 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $729,700 Active 936-char remark
15. 2026-05-09
    historical $729,700 936-char remark
16. 2025-03-05
    soldstatus
17. 2025-03-04
    soldstatus Sold 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

18. 2025-02-21
    status Pending 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

19. 2025-02-10
    status Option Pending 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

20. 2025-01-16
    price $585,000 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

21. 2024-11-19
    price $600,000 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

22. 2024-10-22
    listed $612,000 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    WOW! Great home with a POOL on this beautiful private lot. You'll love the trees, large lot, and NO NEIGHBOR next door for added privacy. This home has had many recent updates including appliances, AC, flooring, paint and more! This home has been cared for very well and has been pre-inspected to address any issues prior to listing to make this home READY FOR YOU!!! Wood tile throughout first floor living spaces, with a nice open living and kitchen area for hosting guests. This space overlooks the large backyard with nice privacy and the beautiful pool and covered patio area. You'll love the spacious backyard retreat! All this in the The Woodlands! You'll love this area with everything you need close by including lots of outdoor activities to enjoy like trails and parks and all your daily services nearby. You are close enough to Houston and IAH for business, you have major medical within the community, and fun like Lake Conroe and the Sam Houston National Forest nearby as well.

23. 2008-09-26
    soldstatus
24. 1997-02-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,963 · $747/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,354 · $1,113/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,391/yr (+$366/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,875
• − Property taxes: −$8,963
• − Insurance: −$3,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,397
• − Management: −$6,397
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$21,228
• Taxable loss: −$8,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $5,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Rental Removed $4,500 HARMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed for Rent $4,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $729,700 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $729,700 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $585,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $600,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $612,000 HARMLS
• 2008-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,963 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.