107 Red Deer Ln · O'Fallon, MO 63366

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,183 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1965 0.48 ac lot Est $273k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You've found your Country Setting with this 3 bedroom, 2 bath Ranch home in Unincorporated St. Charles County! Welcome to the large covered front porch and enter into the family room with 3/4 inch hardwood floors in the family room, hallway, den and one bedroom. The primary bedroom has a private half bathroom. The hall bath has an updated tiled tub/shower. The humongous kitchen will host the large holiday gatherings with tons of countertop space, a pantry, stainless steel appliances with a smooth top stove, microwave and refrigerator, and checkout the windows - so light and bright! The full basement is unfinished and has a walk-up (currently not being used) to the Oversize 2-Car Garage that is approximately 25' x 25'. The back deck overlooks the almost 1/2 Acre lot that backs to trees and an open field. The seller is providing a one-year Choice Home Warranty to the buyer/s at the seller's expense. Peace of mind with this home warranty in a piece of the country. Make it yours today!

Key facts

• Back deck
• Half acre lot
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PLENTY OF COUNTERTOP SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL LIGHT
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Electric service by Ameren; Cable connected; Propane (leased)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Private ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Architectural shingle roof; Unfinished poured concrete basement
• Exterior features: Deck, front porch and patio; Level, rectangular lot with some trees and views

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Basement is unfinished with poured concrete and 8+ ft ceiling height; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westhoff Elem. (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #280 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 545 students, 21% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt North High (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #83 of 521 statewide, top 16%, 1,497 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,412 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,273
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
487 Chatham Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+3%)	3mo	$232,000	$191	76
1 Warshire Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (+2%)	5mo	$280,000	$232	75
166 Maryland Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+0%)	8mo	$275,000	$231	67
153 Maryland Dr Unit 51B	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,188 (+0%)	11mo	$275,000	$231	65
5 Battersea Ct Unit 9B	0.39mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,228 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$224	64
12 Warshire Ct Unit 67A	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,074 (-9%)	7mo	$269,900	$251	63
10 Warshire Ct Ct Unit 67B	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,085 (-8%)	13mo	$289,900	$267	59
1535 Rosedale Dr Unit 74B	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (+5%)	9mo	$267,000	$216	59
205 Maryland Dr Unit 35B	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (+4%)	12mo	$259,900	$212	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-52,497
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-33,603
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63366

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,075/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,486

Max offer price $168,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-244	-5% $-310	+0% $-377	+5% $-443	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-536	-5% $-456	+0% $-377	+5% $-298	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-259	-0.5pp $-317	base $-377	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Old Schaeffer Ln Unit O O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1202	$2,350	$1.96	13d	1	1.03mi
16 Homefield Gardens Dr O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	992	$1,600	$1.61	17d	1	1.32mi
16 Homefield Gardens Dr O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	20d	1	1.32mi
1606 Homefield Meadows Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,692	$1.51	3d	1	1.42mi
27 Fawn View Ln O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.0	973	$2,085	$2.14	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $235,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,075
• − Insurance: −$6,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$8,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 54,769
• Household income: $100,621
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.79%
• Current HPI: 226.7579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.43%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+422.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $235,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $216,250 Public Records
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Listed $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Coming Soon $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-08 Listed $105,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,075 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.