1243 Trout Run Rd · Cherrytree, PA 16354

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,744 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1985 0.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this completely remodeled sectional home with rustic flair, perfectly nestled in the woods just outside of town on a quiet country road. Enjoy peaceful, one-floor living in a spacious open layout featuring a large great room with multiple French doors leading to a wraparound deck and a 24' above-ground pool—ideal for entertaining or simply unwinding in nature. Inside, you'll find laminate flooring throughout the main living areas, a cozy pellet stove in the great room, and an updated kitchen with all appliances included. Both bathrooms feature full-tile, walk-in showers, and the home offers three comfortable bedrooms in a sprawling, open plan. Additional updates include all-

Key facts

• One-floor living
• Wraparound deck
• Spacious open layout

Tags

• REMODELED SECTIONAL HOME
• ONE-FLOOR LIVING
• SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• MULTIPLE FRENCH DOORS
• WRAPAROUND DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Four covered parking spaces (4 total garage/covered spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; 100 amp electrical service
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Porch; Garage and shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 10 rooms total
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Titusville Area SD (town): math 35% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #287 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Lc (233 students, 76% FRL); Titusville Ms (math 19% / reading 50%, grade F, #328 of 512 statewide, top 65%, 451 students, 68% FRL); Titusville Shs (math 62% / reading 75%, grade B, #53 of 437 statewide, top 13%, 573 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Venango County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Venango County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,091
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-12,889
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16354

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,078/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $69	+0% $34	+5% $-2	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $-12	+0% $34	+5% $79	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $65	base $34	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $125,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 234 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-03-30
    price $130,000
20. 2026-01-06
    price $135,000
21. 2025-10-10
    listed $150,000 Active
22. 1985-12-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,078 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,078 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,078
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Titusville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4223490
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,179
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4418
• State rank: #287 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cherrytree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,120

Population outlook (Venango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,827 people
• By 2030: 46,061 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 39,989 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 34,094 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 22,500 · -53.9%
• By 2100: 13,659 · -72.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Venango

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+41.4 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.41%
• Current HPI: 221.8311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+420.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Contingent — AVBREALTORS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $130,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $135,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $150,000 AVBREALTORS
• 1985-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,078 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.