11490 Axis Deer Ln · Fort Myers, FL 33966

$430,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $493k · 13% under $372/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Courtyard Living in Casa Del Lago means unparalleled privacy and relaxation. Nestled inside this gated community you will love to call home, this unexpected charmer really soaks up the Florida sun. Embrace the comfort of this courtyard design that features an open floor plan and screened in lanai with flowing access to all of the main living areas of the home. You’re never far from the sparkling pool and the sound of the water feature at this home! Three large bedrooms and three full bathrooms are perfect for all of those out of town guests seeking warm weather and sunshine. Everything here is designed with comfort in mind. This courtyard home has an additional guest house cabana, which is perfect for entertaining or an art studio. Included with your very low HOA fees come access to the beautiful Clubhouse and numerous social activities within the community, along with lawn care maintenance! Located at the desired Six Mile Cypress and Daniels corridor. Close to RSW Airport, Interstate 75, Gulf Coast Hospital and the new Daniels Crossing Plaza, which has Whole Foods and other attractions. The seller is motivated so be ready to call this unique house your home!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Tray ceiling
• Double doors

Tags

• TROPICAL OASIS
• DOUBLE DOORS
• GREAT ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• TRAY CEILING
• UNIQUE ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $430k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 539% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $430k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $493,416
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7371 Sika Deer Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,113 (+13%)	3mo	$417,500	$198	68
7565 Sika Deer Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-6%)	21mo	$442,500	$252	57
7370 Key Deer Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,089 (+12%)	15mo	$496,700	$238	55
11131 Wine Palm Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,145 (+15%)	6mo	$730,000	$340	54
11461 Fallow Deer Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+14%)	23mo	$560,000	$264	49
7671 Cypress Walk Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,111 (+13%)	18mo	$600,000	$284	48
6651 Willow Lake Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+7%)	2mo	$550,000	$275	48
11233 Wine Palm Rd	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-10%)	14mo	$585,000	$350	47
12080 Stone Pine Ct	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,870 (+0%)	14mo	$413,798	$221	47
11627 Solano Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,842 (-1%)	17mo	$435,000	$236	45
10519 Wine Palm Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,131 (+14%)	6mo	$720,000	$338	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-53,733
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-59,836
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33966

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,527/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$372
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,924

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $577	+0% $455	+5% $333	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $277	+0% $455	+5% $633	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $672	-0.5pp $564	base $455	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7502 Key Deer Ct Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1713	$1,600	$0.93	22d	1	0.12mi
10537 Washingtonia Palm Way #4126 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1662	$7,000	$4.21	24d	1	0.78mi
6715 Willow Lake Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.5	2127	$3,600	$1.69	24d	1	0.86mi
7301 Lake Bank Loop Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1234	$3,112	$2.52	2d	124	0.91mi
11761 Adoncia Way #3907 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1435	$7,470	$5.21	19d	1	0.93mi
8320 Esperanza St #1608 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1345	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.94mi
8309 Adelio Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1809	$6,500	$3.59	3d	1	0.98mi
8471 Olinda Way #3708 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1350	$6,000	$4.44	24d	1	0.99mi
11907 Adoncia Way #3005 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,800	$1.63	2d	1	1.00mi
11907 Adoncia Way #3002 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,600	$1.59	24d	1	1.00mi
10391 Butterfly Palm Dr #1036 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.01mi
11830 Paseo Grande Blvd #4607 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1345	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	1.03mi
11072 Esteban Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1875	$7,250	$3.87	24d	1	1.06mi
11890 Paseo Grande Blvd #4305 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,800	$1.71	4d	1	1.07mi
11890 Paseo Grande Blvd #4305 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,800	$1.71	14d	1	1.07mi
4732 Imperial Eagle Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	1920	$11,000	$5.73	24d	1	1.08mi
10361 Butterfly Palm Dr #745 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.16mi
8663 Olinda Way #7507 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1452	$2,500	$1.72	24d	1	1.16mi
10401 McArthur Palm Ln #2523 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$7,000	$5.00	24d	1	1.17mi
11845 Palba Way #7301 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2026	$5,900	$2.91	24d	1	1.18mi
12060 Lucca St #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1688	$2,295	$1.36	24d	1	1.20mi
11908 Izarra Way #7003 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,300	$1.72	16d	1	1.25mi
11908 Izarra Way #7005 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$5,500	$3.36	24d	1	1.25mi
10381 McArthur Palm Ln #2723 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$7,000	$5.00	24d	1	1.25mi
11875 Izarra Way #8711 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1452	$6,000	$4.13	24d	1	1.26mi
8076 Queen Palm Ln #437 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.27mi
8753 Melosia St #8206 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1361	$6,200	$4.56	24d	1	1.30mi
11850 Liana St #9001 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$6,500	$3.88	24d	1	1.30mi
11846 Nalda St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	16d	1	1.37mi
10356 White Palm Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$8,000	$4.80	24d	1	1.37mi
6170 Mahaffey Rd Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,174	$1.97	24d	1	1.40mi
6517 Good Life St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1429	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	1.43mi
6517 Good Life St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1429	$2,100	$1.47	4d	1	1.43mi
11907 Nalda St #11906 Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	2005	$7,500	$3.74	24d	1	1.46mi
12840 Dornoch Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1690	$2,200	$1.30	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $372 · $4,464/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $430,000
3. 2026-01-05
   price $445,000
4. 2025-10-24
   price $465,000
5. 2025-09-16
   listed $485,000 Active
6. 2025-08-15
   historical
7. 2025-07-15
   price $510,000
8. 2025-04-25
   price $520,000
9. 2025-03-06
   price $535,000
10. 2025-02-14
    price $545,000
11. 2025-01-27
    price $550,000
12. 2024-12-26
    price $559,900
13. 2024-09-09
    listed $570,000 Active
14. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus $280,000 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Courtyard Living in Casa Del Lago means unparalleled privacy and relaxation. Nestled inside this gated community you will love to call home, this unexpected charmer really soaks up the Florida sun. Embrace the comfort of this courtyard design that features an open floor plan and screened in lanai with flowing access to all of the main living areas of the home. You’re never far from the sparkling pool and the sound of the water feature at this home! Three large bedrooms and three full bathrooms are perfect for all of those out of town guests seeking warm weather and sunshine. Everything here is designed with comfort in mind. This courtyard home has an additional guest house cabana, which is perfect for entertaining or an art studio. Included with your very low HOA fees come access to the beautiful Clubhouse and numerous social activities within the community, along with lawn care maintenance! Located at the desired Six Mile Cypress and Daniels corridor. Close to RSW Airport, Interstate 75, Gulf Coast Hospital and the new Daniels Crossing Plaza, which has Whole Foods and other attractions. The seller is motivated so be ready to call this unique house your home!

15. 2019-02-21
    soldstatus $280,000
16. 2019-02-20
    soldstatus $280,000 Sold
17. 2019-01-14
    status Pending With Contingencies
18. 2019-01-06
    status Active
19. 2018-12-31
    status Pending With Contingencies
20. 2018-12-26
    price $289,900
21. 2018-11-05
    price $299,000
22. 2018-10-22
    price $309,000
23. 2018-10-05
    listed $299,000 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Courtyard Living in Casa Del Lago means unparalleled privacy and relaxation. Nestled inside this gated community you will love to call home, this unexpected charmer really soaks up the Florida sun. Embrace the comfort of this courtyard design that features an open floor plan and screened in lanai with flowing access to all of the main living areas of the home. You’re never far from the sparkling pool and the sound of the water feature at this home! Three large bedrooms and three full bathrooms are perfect for all of those out of town guests seeking warm weather and sunshine. Everything here is designed with comfort in mind. This courtyard home has an additional guest house cabana, which is perfect for entertaining or an art studio. Included with your very low HOA fees come access to the beautiful Clubhouse and numerous social activities within the community, along with lawn care maintenance! Located at the desired Six Mile Cypress and Daniels corridor. Close to RSW Airport, Interstate 75, Gulf Coast Hospital and the new Daniels Crossing Plaza, which has Whole Foods and other attractions. The seller is motivated so be ready to call this unique house your home!

24. 2018-09-21
    price $319,900
25. 2018-08-31
    listed $329,000 Active
26. 2015-08-19
    soldstatus $287,000
27. 2015-08-17
    price $287,000
28. 2015-08-14
    soldstatus $287,000 Sold
29. 2015-08-11
    price $289,900
30. 2015-07-21
    status Pending With Contingencies
31. 2015-06-05
    price $289,900
32. 2015-04-19
    price $299,900
33. 2015-03-28
    price $304,900
34. 2015-03-06
    price $311,000
35. 2015-02-17
    listed $312,000 Active
36. 2004-08-25
    soldstatus $609,600
37. 2003-07-09
    soldstatus $4,582,200
38. 2002-08-29
    soldstatus $1,300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,569 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$3/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$3,527
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − HOA: −$4,464
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $5,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,513
• Household income: $84,965
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.16%
• Current HPI: 219.1188
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.28%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-66.9% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $430,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $445,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $465,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $485,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $510,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $520,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $535,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $545,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $550,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-26 Price Changed $559,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listed $570,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-20 Sold (MLS) $280,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-01-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2019-01-06 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2018-12-31 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2018-12-26 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-11-05 Price Changed $299,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-10-22 Price Changed $309,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-10-05 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-21 Price Changed $319,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $329,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $287,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-17 Price Changed $287,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-08-14 Sold (MLS) $287,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-08-11 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-07-21 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-06-05 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-04-19 Price Changed $299,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-28 Price Changed $304,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-06 Price Changed $311,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-02-17 Listed $312,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $609,600 Public Records
• 2003-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $4,582,200 Public Records
• 2002-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,527 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.