423 North Rice Ave · Louisa, KY 41230

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Other · 56 Days on market

Built 1960 5,227 sqft lot $81/sqft · at area comps Est $93k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a corner lot with a nice size backyard which is fenced in and perfect for kids or your animals to run around. Call/Text listing agent to set up your showing today!

Key facts

• Back deck
• Fenced backyard
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($896/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence County High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 738 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $89k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,858
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $36,798
• Equity at exit: $62,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $103,429
• Equity at exit: $119,874

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41230

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $89,000 Active 400-char remark
17. 2026-02-11
    price $89,000
18. 2026-01-15
    listed $92,000 Active
19. 2022-10-17
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Located on a corner lot with a nice size backyard which is fenced in and perfect for kids or your animals to run around. Call/Text listing agent to set up your showing today!

20. 2022-10-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Located on a corner lot with a nice size backyard which is fenced in and perfect for kids or your animals to run around. Call/Text listing agent to set up your showing today!

21. 2022-09-28
    price $64,900

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Located on a corner lot with a nice size backyard which is fenced in and perfect for kids or your animals to run around. Call/Text listing agent to set up your showing today!

22. 2022-08-23
    listed $69,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Located on a corner lot with a nice size backyard which is fenced in and perfect for kids or your animals to run around. Call/Text listing agent to set up your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$919
• − Management: −$919
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 2103240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,668
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7189
• State rank: #95 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #18153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisa, KY
• Population (ZIP): 12,399

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,462 people
• By 2030: 15,038 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,142 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,292 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 11,353 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 9,417 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 15.9% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.5 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 177.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $89,000 EKAR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $89,000 EKAR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $92,000 EKAR
• 2022-10-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 EKAR
• 2022-10-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2022-09-28 Price Changed $64,900 EKAR
• 2022-08-23 Listed $69,900 EKAR

Property tax history

-23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11 · -74.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.