48235 N 513th Ave · Aguila, AZ 85320

$674,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1999 5.00 ac lot Est $1194k · 43% under $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER SAYS ''SELL THIS PROPERTY'' THE CCR'S SAY ''HORSES YES'' FANTASTIC AFORDABLE AIRPARK LIVING WITH GREAT HANGAR AND EASY LIVING HOME HANGAR IS 45 X 50 NOT MORE THAN 100FT FROM YOUR BACK DOOR... PILOT COMMARADERIE UNMATCHED...FLY-OUTS, POTLUCKS, HANGAR TALK, YOU'LL FIND IT ALL HERE... HARD SURFACE RUNWAY, TAXIWAYS,LIGHTS... IT'S PERFECT...THIS IS AN ACTIVE FLYING COMMUNITY...REMEMBER AIRCRAFT HAVE RIGHT OF WAY AT ALL TIMES...ROADS IN THIS PARK ARE TAXIWAYS...

Key facts

• Outdoor fireplace
• Private airpark home
• Paved taxiways

Tags

• PRIVATE AIRPARK HOME
• 5 ACRES
• PAVED RUNWAY
• PAVED TAXIWAYS
• 300 SQ FT HANGAR
• OUTDOOR FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size recorded from assessor; Building area source: Assessor
• Financial info: Current financing: Private
• HOA & community: Association with annual fee of $1,200; Association fee includes street maintenance; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage; RV access/parking; Gated entry; Garage door opener; Circular driveway; Hangar
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic system (septic in and connected; septic tank)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Painted finish; Adobe features; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Spa (above ground); Storage; Block and wire fencing; Corner lot; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in master bath; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Skylight(s); Exterior fireplace and living room fireplace (see remarks); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $625k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($594k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $550k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,000 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,194,208
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50839 W Iver Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,138 (-0%)	5mo	$800,000	$374	73
51008 W Pete Rd	0.58mi	2/1.8 (-1)	2,154 (+0%)	16mo	$1,200,000	$557	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $17,917
• Equity at exit: $255,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $148,181
• Equity at exit: $359,902

Cash invested: $188,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85320

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,539
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,769/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,360

Max offer price $624,638

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $-93	+0% $-285	+5% $-476	+10% $-667
Rent	-10% $-680	-5% $-482	+0% $-285	+5% $-87	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-113	base $-285	+0.5pp $-459	+1.0pp $-637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,725
• Closing costs: $20,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51207 W Iver Rd Aguila, AZ	3.0	2.0	2055	$5,000	$2.43	0d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $674,900 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $674,900 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $674,900 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $674,900 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $674,900 Active 359 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $674,900 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $674,900 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $674,900 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   price $674,900
10. 2025-11-03
    price $699,000
11. 2025-10-06
    price $749,000
12. 2025-06-09
    listed $775,000 Active
13. 2023-05-01
    soldstatus $550,000
14. 2019-12-27
    soldstatus $350,000
15. 2019-12-18
    soldstatus $350,000 Closed 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    SELLER SAYS ''SELL THIS PROPERTY'' THE CCR'S SAY ''HORSES YES'' FANTASTIC AFORDABLE AIRPARK LIVING WITH GREAT HANGAR AND EASY LIVING HOME HANGAR IS 45 X 50 NOT MORE THAN 100FT FROM YOUR BACK DOOR... PILOT COMMARADERIE UNMATCHED...FLY-OUTS, POTLUCKS, HANGAR TALK, YOU'LL FIND IT ALL HERE... HARD SURFACE RUNWAY, TAXIWAYS,LIGHTS... IT'S PERFECT...THIS IS AN ACTIVE FLYING COMMUNITY...REMEMBER AIRCRAFT HAVE RIGHT OF WAY AT ALL TIMES...ROADS IN THIS PARK ARE TAXIWAYS...

16. 2019-11-25
    status Pending 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    SELLER SAYS ''SELL THIS PROPERTY'' THE CCR'S SAY ''HORSES YES'' FANTASTIC AFORDABLE AIRPARK LIVING WITH GREAT HANGAR AND EASY LIVING HOME HANGAR IS 45 X 50 NOT MORE THAN 100FT FROM YOUR BACK DOOR... PILOT COMMARADERIE UNMATCHED...FLY-OUTS, POTLUCKS, HANGAR TALK, YOU'LL FIND IT ALL HERE... HARD SURFACE RUNWAY, TAXIWAYS,LIGHTS... IT'S PERFECT...THIS IS AN ACTIVE FLYING COMMUNITY...REMEMBER AIRCRAFT HAVE RIGHT OF WAY AT ALL TIMES...ROADS IN THIS PARK ARE TAXIWAYS...

17. 2019-03-09
    price $360,000 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    SELLER SAYS ''SELL THIS PROPERTY'' THE CCR'S SAY ''HORSES YES'' FANTASTIC AFORDABLE AIRPARK LIVING WITH GREAT HANGAR AND EASY LIVING HOME HANGAR IS 45 X 50 NOT MORE THAN 100FT FROM YOUR BACK DOOR... PILOT COMMARADERIE UNMATCHED...FLY-OUTS, POTLUCKS, HANGAR TALK, YOU'LL FIND IT ALL HERE... HARD SURFACE RUNWAY, TAXIWAYS,LIGHTS... IT'S PERFECT...THIS IS AN ACTIVE FLYING COMMUNITY...REMEMBER AIRCRAFT HAVE RIGHT OF WAY AT ALL TIMES...ROADS IN THIS PARK ARE TAXIWAYS...

18. 2015-12-26
    listed $395,000 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    SELLER SAYS ''SELL THIS PROPERTY'' THE CCR'S SAY ''HORSES YES'' FANTASTIC AFORDABLE AIRPARK LIVING WITH GREAT HANGAR AND EASY LIVING HOME HANGAR IS 45 X 50 NOT MORE THAN 100FT FROM YOUR BACK DOOR... PILOT COMMARADERIE UNMATCHED...FLY-OUTS, POTLUCKS, HANGAR TALK, YOU'LL FIND IT ALL HERE... HARD SURFACE RUNWAY, TAXIWAYS,LIGHTS... IT'S PERFECT...THIS IS AN ACTIVE FLYING COMMUNITY...REMEMBER AIRCRAFT HAVE RIGHT OF WAY AT ALL TIMES...ROADS IN THIS PARK ARE TAXIWAYS...

19. 2010-04-04
    historical
20. 2010-01-04
    listed $589,000 Active
21. 2009-06-30
    historical
22. 2008-11-04
    listed $589,000
23. 2008-06-12
    historical
24. 2008-02-05
    listed $599,000
25. 2006-09-22
    soldstatus $550,000
26. 2006-09-15
    soldstatus $550,000
27. 2006-05-10
    historical
28. 2006-03-03
    listed $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,769 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,454 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$686/yr (+$57/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,769
• − Insurance: −$3,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$19,633
• Taxable loss: −$15,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,692
• After-tax cash flow: $277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aguila Elementary District (4249)
• NCES district ID: 0400480
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,507
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #9763
• State rank: #215 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Aguila

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #23150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Native American 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 111.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+22.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $674,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $749,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $775,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-18 Sold (MLS) $350,000 ARMLS
• 2019-11-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-03-09 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2015-12-26 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-01-04 Listed $589,000 ARMLS
• 2009-06-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-11-04 Listed $589,000 ARMLS
• 2008-06-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-02-05 Listed $599,000 ARMLS
• 2006-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-15 Sold (MLS) $550,000 ARMLS
• 2006-05-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-03-03 Listed $550,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,769 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.