128 South Union Rd · Elma, WA 98541

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1926 3.50 ac lot $214/sqft · 40% below area Est $385k · 40% under ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper/Investor special with endless potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 3.5 beautiful acres along a creek just off South Union Road in a highly desirable location. The home has good bones and is ready for the right buyer to bring it back to life. With ample space for expansion, renovation, or future development, this property offers a rare opportunity to create something special. The peaceful setting, combined with convenient access to town, makes this an ideal investment for a flip, rental, or long-term hold. Bring your vision and tools—properties like this with land, water, and location don’t come around often!

Key facts

• Along a creek
• Land water location
• 3.5 beautiful acres

Tags

• 3.5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• ALONG A CREEK
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO TOWN
• LAND WATER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.5% in Elma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elma School District (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elma Elementary School (707 students, 77% FRL); Elma Middle School (363 students, 81% FRL); Elma High School (542 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,150 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,299
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -40.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,620
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-52,836
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98541

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $204,102

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-81	+0% $-146	+5% $-211	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-211	+0% $-146	+5% $-81	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-88	base $-146	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $229,900 Pending 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $229,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    price $229,900
11. 2026-01-15
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,253 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elma School District
• NCES district ID: 5302490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,658
• Composite: 44.76/100
• National rank: #5959
• State rank: #146 of 291 in WA

Livability — Elma

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #5431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.43%
• Current HPI: 199.9988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $229,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,697 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.