3928 21st Ave SE #22 · Lacey, WA 98503

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2018 $137/sqft · 15% below area Est $160k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Edge Lake! Step inside to a 2018 Karsten Dream Series 3-bedroom, 1.75-bathroom home in an all-ages community on Chambers Lake! This newer home features an open-concept layout which nicely connects the kitchen space with the living room ideal for guests and entertaining. The primary suite features a large space, attached bathroom, and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office, complemented by a full bathroom for added comfort and convenience. Enjoy year-round comfort on the a newer Ductless AC Unit, plus a partially fenced yard with shed and improved parking with carport and extra wide driveway. All appliances stay! Community

Key facts

• Ductless ac unit
• Open-concept layout
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DUCTLESS AC UNIT
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• CLUBHOUSE WITH LAKE VIEW
• CHEHALIS WESTERN TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%; Cumulative days on market: 12; Calculated living area: 990 (per building plans)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Land-lease community (park approved for sale); Park name: Edgelake LLC; Approximately 50 homes in the park; Pets allowed — see remarks; Land lease amount: $825

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Electric energy; Community water (Edgelake); Sewer service (Edgelake); Power company: PSE; Electric water heater located in mud room; Internet: Comcast
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Clayton Dream-661N); Residential manufactured home in good condition; One story; Southeast facing; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood products exterior; Paved lot; On waterfront — lake; Community amenities: BBQs, clubhouse, common area, community waterfront, high-speed internet available, trails

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Forced air; Ductless heating
• Interior features: Water heater; Kitchen with eating space; Living room; Utility room; Bath off primary; Drapes; Patio/porch/deck; Walk-in closet; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $115k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.47%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -28.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3928 21st Ave SE #66	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	16mo	$74,000	$88	76
3928 21st Ave SE #75	0.10mi	3/2.0	924 (+10%)	16mo	$48,000	$52	65
1617 SE Fones Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-7%)	14mo	$53,000	$68	39
1617 Fones Rd SE #78	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-13%)	14mo	$40,000	$55	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $36,317
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $105,727
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,378/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Fones Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,900	$2.34	13d	6	0.43mi
1617 Elizabeth St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,350	$2.32	13d	1	0.43mi
1219 East St SE Apt 3 Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,615	$1.90	43d	1	0.44mi
4314 14th Way SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	938	$2,500	$2.67	43d	1	0.47mi
1420 Fones Rd SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,062	$1.98	13d	2	0.52mi
1245 Willow St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	676	$1,695	$2.51	21d	1	0.53mi
3806 12th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,775	$2.22	13d	3	0.60mi
1224 Willow St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	21d	1	0.60mi
1212 Willow St SE Unit 1212-I Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	871	$1,595	$1.83	21d	1	0.63mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,425	$2.47	13d	14	1.08mi
3307 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	13d	3	1.09mi
3301 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	21d	1	1.10mi
510 Lilly Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	525	$1,525	$2.90	43d	2	1.15mi
1012 Burr Rd SE Olympia, WA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1024	$1,786	$1.74	13d	4	1.25mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	21d	1	1.28mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	21d	1	1.28mi
2700 Ruddell Rd SE Unit 2740-B Lacey, WA	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,695	$1.61	43d	1	1.40mi
1405 Clearbrook Dr SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,976	$2.68	43d	3	1.40mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	13d	5	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $125,000 Active
17. 2012-12-21
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold
18. 2012-12-07
    status Pending Feasibility
19. 2012-10-25
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,378
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,113
• After-tax cash flow: $8,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-21 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-25 Listed $39,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,378 · +33.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.