51 Merrill St · Springfield, VT 05156

$130,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1900 8,712 sqft lot $56/sqft · 37% below area Est $206k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This great property has so much to offer! With a large and expansive bottom floor unit featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with in unit laundry and a primary suite. Moving upstairs there is a great 2 bedroom 1 bathroom unit and adjacent to that unit is a 1 bed 1 bath unit. With an updated roof in 2020 and a newer heating unit that was put in in 2017.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.1% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $130k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.98%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,469
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -37.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Center St	0.55mi	6/2.0	2,450 (+6%)	13mo	$255,000	$104	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $19,461
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $69,096
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05156

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,158/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $710	-5% $673	+0% $636	+5% $600	+10% $563
Rent	-10% $490	-5% $563	+0% $636	+5% $710	+10% $783
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $670	base $636	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $130,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-04
    listed $130,000 Active 361-char remark
13. 2026-04-03
    soldstatus $70,000
14. 2026-04-01
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This great property has so much to offer! With a large and expansive bottom floor unit featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with in unit laundry and a primary suite. Moving upstairs there is a great 2 bedroom 1 bathroom unit and adjacent to that unit is a 1 bed 1 bath unit. With an updated roof in 2020 and a newer heating unit that was put in in 2017.

15. 2026-02-09
    historical Active with Contract 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This great property has so much to offer! With a large and expansive bottom floor unit featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with in unit laundry and a primary suite. Moving upstairs there is a great 2 bedroom 1 bathroom unit and adjacent to that unit is a 1 bed 1 bath unit. With an updated roof in 2020 and a newer heating unit that was put in in 2017.

16. 2025-11-01
    listed $186,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This great property has so much to offer! With a large and expansive bottom floor unit featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with in unit laundry and a primary suite. Moving upstairs there is a great 2 bedroom 1 bathroom unit and adjacent to that unit is a 1 bed 1 bath unit. With an updated roof in 2020 and a newer heating unit that was put in in 2017.

17. 2007-03-30
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $85,000

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    3 Unit Apartment Building with upgrades such as new vinyl replacement windows throughout, electrical and apt#1 totally renovated. Building has vinyl siding for easy maintenance. Great investment property

19. 2006-12-11
    listed $95,000

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    3 Unit Apartment Building with upgrades such as new vinyl replacement windows throughout, electrical and apt#1 totally renovated. Building has vinyl siding for easy maintenance. Great investment property

20. 1988-10-17
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 1988-10-17
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,158 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,814 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,158
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $5,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,409
• After-tax cash flow: $6,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,028

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.22%
• Current HPI: 310.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-01 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-09 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $186,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-12-11 Listed $95,000 PrimeMLS
• 1988-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,158 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.