2309 Watts Ln · East Highland Park, VA 23223

$260,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1991 10,585 sqft lot $166/sqft · 21% below area Est $328k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bedroom/1.5 bath tri-level is a great opportunity. Solid, well-built home with 1,569 square feet, a large yard, corner lot and shed. Excellent condition.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Three-story building; Renovated
• Construction: Brick, frame, and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Below-grade finished area of 550 and above-grade finished area of 1,019
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Zoned R4

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Resale condition
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($30/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in East Highland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities D-.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $260k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,666 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,366
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -20.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2224 Watts Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	2mo	$295,000	$191	89
2905 Watts Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	4mo	$331,000	$214	86
2815 Caniff Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,406 (-10%)	3mo	$305,000	$217	67
2909 Reynolds Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,712 (+9%)	6mo	$319,900	$187	65
2664 Piney Ridge Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+7%)	7mo	$340,000	$202	64
2632 Piney Ridge Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$355,000	$211	60
3100 Carlton Rd	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,730 (+10%)	5mo	$285,000	$165	56
3005 Sandy Ln	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,387 (-12%)	3mo	$185,000	$133	53
1901 Johnson Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-10%)	9mo	$305,000	$215	53
1815 Doron Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-14%)	4mo	$285,000	$210	48
1712 Binford Ct	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-4%)	10mo	$330,000	$219	48
201 St Claire Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,742 (+11%)	9mo	$238,000	$137	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-34,775
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,603
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2213 Capp Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,200	$1.40	17d	1	0.21mi
3411 Oxnard Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1083	$1,795	$1.66	17d	1	0.49mi
3217 Hunters Mill Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1178	$1,975	$1.68	44d	1	0.56mi
3221 Hunters Mill Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,750	$1.40	3d	1	0.57mi
3231 Hunters Mill Dr Richmond, VA	2.0	1.5	1064	$1,550	$1.46	23d	1	0.58mi
3615 Ammons Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	14d	1	0.78mi
3903 Dominion Townes Cir Unit 1 Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1936	$3,100	$1.60	1d	1	1.04mi
3101 Divine Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,700	$1.77	3d	1	1.10mi
4121 Concord Creek PL Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,570	$2.88	1d	26	1.13mi
2153 Cool Ln Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,080	$0.94	44d	1	1.18mi
4100 Montclair Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1942	$2,450	$1.26	44d	1	1.25mi
4100 Concord Creek Pl Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,395	$2.62	1d	30	1.27mi
4019 Grand Reserve Ln Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1606	$3,000	$1.87	23d	1	1.30mi
2106 Newbourne St Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,875	$1.60	44d	1	1.36mi
3317 Waverly Blvd Unit B Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	17d	1	1.36mi
4184 Park Trail Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,525	$1.57	3d	1	1.37mi
1519 Byron St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1384	$1,700	$1.23	3d	1	1.37mi
3103 Dill Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,050	$1.49	23d	1	1.45mi
3017 Dill Ave Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,895	$1.20	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 160-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $260,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    historical $260,000 139-char remark
16. 1992-10-01
    soldstatus $74,000
17. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $58,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $1,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — East Highland Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #6099

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Highland Park, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+341.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $260,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $260,000 CVRMLS
• 1992-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,900 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.