46 Matilda Ln · New Hebron, MS 39140

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1982 1.00 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your country retreat! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom offers approximately 1,222 sq ft of comfortable living space on a generous 1-acre parcel in a peaceful rural setting. With plenty of yard space for gardening, play, or outdoor projects, this home is ideal for first-time buyers or anyone seeking simple, rural living. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#241 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson Davis County School District (rural): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #104 of 130 in MS (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $26,055
• Equity at exit: $56,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $76,354
• Equity at exit: $93,875

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39140

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $123	+0% $92	+5% $61	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $52	+0% $92	+5% $132	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $120	base $92	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-02-25
    price $110,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to your country retreat! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom offers approximately 1,222 sq ft of comfortable living space on a generous 1-acre parcel in a peaceful rural setting. With plenty of yard space for gardening, play, or outdoor projects, this home is ideal for first-time buyers or anyone seeking simple, rural living. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-12-19
    listed $115,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Welcome to your country retreat! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom offers approximately 1,222 sq ft of comfortable living space on a generous 1-acre parcel in a peaceful rural setting. With plenty of yard space for gardening, play, or outdoor projects, this home is ideal for first-time buyers or anyone seeking simple, rural living. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$968
• − Management: −$968
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $1,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Davis County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802250
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $27,474
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9549
• State rank: #104 of 130 in MS

Livability — New Hebron

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #20044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,497

Population outlook (Jefferson Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,128 people
• By 2030: 9,342 · -7.8%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -22.6%
• By 2050: 6,583 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 4,540 · -55.2%
• By 2100: 3,563 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 45%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson Davis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.8) · D 56.5% · R 42.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: 21.5pp · 2024: 13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.8 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+20.1 2012: D+25.0 2008: D+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 124.8266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $110,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-19 Listed $115,000 MLSU