Netcher Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$367,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 311 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Lake
• Parks

Tags

• GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAKE
• PARKS
• SPORTS COURTS
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $367,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $462,337.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-944 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,413 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,337
• List price: $367,990
• Delta: -20.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30914 Waterfowl Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+10%)	1mo	$385,990	$163	76
32111 Morning Luster Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,146 (-1%)	5mo	$354,990	$165	67
32119 Morning Luster Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+4%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	62
5215 Birch Shadow Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,950 (-10%)	2mo	$363,075	$186	59
32523 Midsummer Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,139 (-1%)	3mo	$317,990	$149	59
5822 Sunkissed Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-8%)	3mo	$334,990	$168	59
32515 Midsummer Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,139 (-1%)	4mo	$325,990	$152	59
5815 Blazing Light Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+4%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	52
31103 Harvest Time Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-8%)	2mo	$412,900	$208	51
5807 Blazing Light Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,392 (+11%)	0mo	$344,990	$144	51
5711 Sunland Trl	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+11%)	5mo	$391,990	$163	46
5427 Tourmaline Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,364 (+9%)	4mo	$324,900	$137	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-143,531
• Equity at exit: $68,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-235,256
• Equity at exit: $39,974

Cash invested: $129,454 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 114 active · 75 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,995 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 198 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,425
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$578 /mo · $6,935/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-944

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,129

Max offer price $325,796

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-624	-5% $-784	+0% $-944	+5% $-1,103	+10% $-1,263
Rent	-10% $-1,175	-5% $-1,060	+0% $-944	+5% $-828	+10% $-712
Rate	-1.0pp $-711	-0.5pp $-826	base $-944	+0.5pp $-1,063	+1.0pp $-1,185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,584
• Closing costs: $13,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31430 Warm Kindling Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	29d	1	0.35mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	1d	1	0.65mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	75d	1	0.65mi
32503 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	119d	1	0.69mi
32511 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	104d	1	0.70mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	10d	1	0.78mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	100d	1	0.80mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.0	2992	$7,793	$2.60	0d	1	0.84mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	153d	1	0.86mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	0d	1	1.10mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.26mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	153d	1	1.28mi
31351 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	92d	1	1.31mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $367,990 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $367,990 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $367,990 Active 309 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $367,990 Active 308 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $367,990 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $367,990 Active 305 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $367,990 Active 304 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $367,990 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $367,990 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 295 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 294 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 293 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 292 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 291 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 290 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 289 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 288 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 287 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 286 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 285 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 284 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 283 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $367,990 Active 282 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $367,990 Active 281 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $367,990 Active 280 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $367,990 Active 279 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $367,990 Active 278 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $367,990 Active 277 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 276 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 275 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $367,990 Active 274 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $367,990 Active 273 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $367,990 Active 272 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 271 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 270 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 269 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 268 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $367,990 Active 267 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 266 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 265 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 264 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 263 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 262 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    pricedays on market $367,990 Active 260 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,898
• − Property taxes: −$6,935
• − Insurance: −$3,109
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,817
• − Management: −$2,817
• − Depreciation: −$13,450
• Taxable loss: −$19,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,810–$32,430 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Trim hedges — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $396,990 Zillow