Berkeley Plan · Shelby, MI 48315

$653,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,834 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Berkeley is a two-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and more than 2,700 sq. ft. of living space. The first floor showcases a dining room and a living room off the foyer, great room that opens to the kitchen and eat-in nook, and a mud room with a walk-in closet. The second floor features a laundry room, primary suite with a full bath and walk in closet, and three secondary bedrooms. Looking for a new home in Southeast Michigan? Contact our sales team to learn more about the Berkeley! We can't wait to meet with you and discuss building your dream home with Lombardo Homes! All dimensions are approximate. Drawings and photos are for illustrative purposes only. Information is subjec

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Living room
• Dining room

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN
• EAT-IN NOOK
• MUD ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing is active

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Berkeley plan; New construction (Plan)
• Construction: Newly built plan (2026 listing); Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2834; Plan lot located in Shelby Township

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (specific appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details not provided)

🏗️ New construction. The $653,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $801,383.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $654k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $566k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $495k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $495k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $495,000 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $801,383
• List price: $653,990
• Delta: -18.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14103 Regatta Bay Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,839 (+0%)	1mo	$824,171	$290	83
13914 Leeward Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	3,149 (+11%)	1mo	$886,554	$282	79
55810 Laurel Oaks Ln #50	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-13%)	1mo	$884,397	$359	68
55810 Laurel Oaks Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-13%)	1mo	$884,397	$359	68
13808 Stone Falcon Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,540 (-10%)	3mo	$703,735	$277	68
13702 Ridge Oak Ln	0.21mi	4/3.5	3,148 (+11%)	4mo	$939,015	$298	64
55581 Bay Oaks Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-13%)	2mo	$733,484	$298	62
55581 Bay Oaks Ct #10	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-13%)	2mo	$733,484	$298	62
14278 Larkspur Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	3,007 (+6%)	1mo	$650,000	$216	60
57165 Willow Ridge Blvd	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,005 (+6%)	4mo	$590,500	$197	49
57116 Veridian Dr. Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,250 (+15%)	4mo	$855,000	$263	37
13987 Quail View Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,436 (-14%)	0mo	$950,363	$390	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-233,451
• Equity at exit: $119,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-336,470
• Equity at exit: $69,289

Cash invested: $224,387 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,203
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,002 /mo · $12,021/yr
• Insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,040
• Net cashflow: $-1,628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,010

Max offer price $565,855

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $200,346
• Closing costs: $24,041
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55740 Beacon Shore Dr Utica, MI	5.0	4.0	3385	$4,950	$1.46	1d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $653,990 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $653,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $653,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $653,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $653,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $653,990 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $653,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $653,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $653,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $653,990 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $653,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $653,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $653,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $653,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $653,990 Active 1161-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,890
• − Property taxes: −$12,021
• − Insurance: −$4,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,752
• − Management: −$4,752
• − Depreciation: −$23,313
• Taxable loss: −$34,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,428

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B