535 Republic Ave · Alma, MI 48801

$21,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot $18/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $21k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $21k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.5% vs local median 4.2% in Alma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#345 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma Public Schools (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #288 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 47 units permitted in Gratiot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $145 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $630 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gratiot County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,740 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.87%
• DSCR: 7.22
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,000
• List price: $21,000
• Delta: -84.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Williamette Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,159 (-1%)	0mo	$82,000	$71	82
616 Bridge Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+6%)	3mo	$105,900	$85	75
920 Ely St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,178 (+0%)	3mo	$145,500	$124	71
704 Republic Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,044 (-11%)	8mo	$155,000	$148	68
1030 Eastward St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+5%)	3mo	$135,000	$109	67
804 Hannah Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-10%)	4mo	$124,000	$117	66
726 Pennsylvania Ave Lot : 58	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-11%)	4mo	$132,000	$126	65
726 Pennsylvania Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-11%)	4mo	$132,000	$126	65
320 Euclid Ave	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+4%)	4mo	$68,775	$56	59
618 N River Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+1%)	10mo	$130,000	$110	54
800 Ely St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,070 (-9%)	0mo	$133,800	$125	51
916 N River Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,302 (+11%)	0mo	$138,000	$106	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.85×
• Total profit: $40,253
• Equity at exit: $3,131

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.52×
• Total profit: $91,276
• Equity at exit: $1,816

Cash invested: $5,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48801

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$110
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $87/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $160

Max offer price $21,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,250
• Closing costs: $630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Windsor St Alma, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$875	$1.30	43d	1	0.74mi
1589 Mary Ct Alma, MI	3.0	1.5	1012	$1,275	$1.26	43d	1	1.40mi
307 W Elizabeth St Unit 307 Alma, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $21,000 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $21,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $21,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $21,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $21,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $21,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $21,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $21,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $21,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $21,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $21,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    price $21,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $25,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

17. 2026-05-18
    price $25,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

18. 2026-04-20
    price $27,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

19. 2026-04-20
    price $27,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

20. 2026-04-11
    price $29,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

21. 2026-04-10
    price $29,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

22. 2026-04-07
    price $31,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

23. 2026-04-07
    price $31,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

24. 2026-03-31
    price $33,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

25. 2026-03-30
    price $33,000 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

26. 2026-03-25
    listed $35,000 Active 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

27. 2026-03-25
    listed $35,000 Active 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    This is a fixer upper, No Known liens or Code Violations.

28. 2026-03-05
    historical
29. 2026-03-05
    historical
30. 2026-03-02
    price $39,600
31. 2026-03-01
    price $39,600
32. 2026-03-01
    price $39,600
33. 2026-02-17
    listed $49,600 Active
34. 2026-02-17
    listed $49,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $87 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 135.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,176
• − Property taxes: −$87
• − Insurance: −$105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$611
• Taxable income: $8,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $6,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alma Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602640
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,651
• Composite: 29.84/100
• National rank: #6415
• State rank: #288 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alma

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #8809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alma, MI
• City population: 13,433
• Population (ZIP): 13,433

Population outlook (Gratiot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,991 people
• By 2030: 38,944 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 36,694 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 34,314 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 27,693 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 20,809 · -48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gratiot

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 33.7% · R 65.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.16%
• Current HPI: 210.3208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-49.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $25,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $29,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $29,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $31,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $31,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $33,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $39,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $39,600 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $39,600 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $49,600 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Listed $49,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS