16838 Spotted Oak Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$271,440

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,279 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Barlow Floor Plan - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner suite
• Game room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• GAME ROOM
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes
• HOA & community: Association CCMC with annual fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Two-story layout (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Gas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (16 x 12); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (12 x 12, 12 x 12, 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity in primary bath; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bathroom with separate shower and tub/shower combo; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $271,440 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,671 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,990
• List price: $271,440
• Delta: -4.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,884
• Equity at exit: $42,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,205
• Equity at exit: $24,641

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,296

Max offer price $284,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $215	+0% $135	+5% $54	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $37	+0% $135	+5% $232	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $207	base $135	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	45d	1	0.15mi
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	26d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $271,440 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,440 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,440 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,440 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $271,440 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $271,440 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $271,440 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $271,440 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $271,440 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,440 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,440 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-07
    listed $285,990 Active 515-char remark
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $285,990 Active 329-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,967 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,759/yr (+$313/mo · 311.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$773
• After-tax cash flow: $2,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $271,440 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $281,440 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $285,990 HARMLS