825 Munn Ln · Orient, NY 11957

$2,250,000

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1900 1.32 ac lot $750/sqft · 40% below area Est $3730k · 40% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Orient – Set high above the Long Island Sound in the storied enclave known as The Hill, this rare offering captures the essence of classic Orient living. Authentic, timeless, and grand in scale, the home showcases architectural details including five fireplaces, elegant 16-over-1 windows, and a front entry framed by original sidelights. The 1.3-acre grounds unfold across rolling terrain with mature landscaping, stonework, and meandering garden paths. A sparkling swimming pool sits tucked into the landscape, creating a private retreat. Inside, generous rooms and a waterside screened porch invite gatherings large and small, all set against the backdrop of unforgettable sunsets. The home offers space, character, and endless potential. Cherished by the same family for 65 years, it now awaits its next steward. Properties of this caliber and in this location are exceedingly rare. It doesn’t get more quintessentially North Fork than this. A truly special Orient opportunity.

Key facts

• 1.32 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($104k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $2.25M).
• Recommended offer: $2.05M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $241k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $225k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $630k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$387k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,047,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.59%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,729,608
• List price: $2,250,000
• Delta: -39.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $1,779,083
• Equity at exit: $2,026,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.62×
• Total profit: $4,801,230
• Equity at exit: $4,371,255

Cash invested: $630,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax from tax record: −$676 /mo · $8,113/yr
• Insurance: −$938
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,880
• Net cashflow: $8,707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,978

Max offer price $2,250,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,981	-5% $9,344	+0% $8,707	+5% $8,070	+10% $7,433
Rent	-10% $6,495	-5% $7,601	+0% $8,707	+5% $9,813	+10% $10,919
Rate	-1.0pp $9,840	-0.5pp $9,279	base $8,707	+0.5pp $8,124	+1.0pp $7,531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $562,500
• Closing costs: $67,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Youngs Rd Orient, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$28,000	$9.33	45d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $2,250,000 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Orient – Set high above the Long Island Sound in the storied enclave known as The Hill, this rare offering captures the essence of classic Orient living. Authentic, timeless, and grand in scale, the home showcases architectural details including five fireplaces, elegant 16-over-1 windows, and a front entry framed by original sidelights. The 1.3-acre grounds unfold across rolling terrain with mature landscaping, stonework, and meandering garden paths. A sparkling swimming pool sits tucked into the landscape, creating a private retreat. Inside, generous rooms and a waterside screened porch invite gatherings large and small, all set against the backdrop of unforgettable sunsets. The home offers space, character, and endless potential. Cherished by the same family for 65 years, it now awaits its next steward. Properties of this caliber and in this location are exceedingly rare. It doesn’t get more quintessentially North Fork than this. A truly special Orient opportunity.

17. 2026-03-04
    historical $2,250,000 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Orient – Set high above the Long Island Sound in the storied enclave known as The Hill, this rare offering captures the essence of classic Orient living. Authentic, timeless, and grand in scale, the home showcases architectural details including five fireplaces, elegant 16-over-1 windows, and a front entry framed by original sidelights. The 1.3-acre grounds unfold across rolling terrain with mature landscaping, stonework, and meandering garden paths. A sparkling swimming pool sits tucked into the landscape, creating a private retreat. Inside, generous rooms and a waterside screened porch invite gatherings large and small, all set against the backdrop of unforgettable sunsets. The home offers space, character, and endless potential. Cherished by the same family for 65 years, it now awaits its next steward. Properties of this caliber and in this location are exceedingly rare. It doesn’t get more quintessentially North Fork than this. A truly special Orient opportunity.

18. 2025-08-21
    historical
19. 2025-01-16
    status Active
20. 2025-01-15
    price $2,250,000
21. 2024-09-03
    listed $2,800,000 Active
22. 2024-08-21
    price $2,800,000
23. 2024-08-20
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,113 · $676/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,069 · $1,922/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,956/yr (+$1,246/mo · 184.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $336,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$126,035
• − Property taxes: −$8,113
• − Insurance: −$11,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,880
• − Management: −$26,880
• − Depreciation: −$65,455
• Taxable income: $71,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,133
• After-tax cash flow: $87,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Coming Soon $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Listed $2,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $2,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-20 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,113 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.