513 Kinley Dr · Waukee, IA 50263

$261,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,658 sqft · Townhouse · 161 Days on market

Built 2025 1,368 sqft lot Est $270k · at est. $195/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Pattison, a townhome in Spring Crest Townhomes - offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,658 sq. ft. of beautifully crafted space with appliances included. Enter through the charming front porch into a welcoming foyer that flows into the open-concept main level. The kitchen boasts white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large island overlooking the dining and living area, complete with a cozy electric fireplace. A half bath adds extra convenience. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and en-suite featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms—including a flexible study/4th bedroom—plus a full bath and la

Key facts

• Dual vanity sink
• Gourmet kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITY SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Waukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#22 in IA, #682 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 886 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,655 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,254
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Kinley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,658 (0%)	1mo	$261,990	$158	99
507 Kinley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,658 (0%)	1mo	$260,990	$157	99
561 10th St	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,706 (+3%)	1mo	$278,000	$163	82
1043 Daisy Ln	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	1mo	$254,990	$169	76
1049 Daisy Ln	0.04mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	0mo	$252,490	$167	76
1045 Daisy Ln	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	1mo	$246,990	$163	76
1044 Maple St	0.05mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	1mo	$239,990	$159	75
1042 Maple St	0.05mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	75
477 Spring Crest Ln	0.13mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,445 (-13%)	0mo	$270,000	$187	63
1347 Meadow Rose Pl	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (+2%)	0mo	$261,900	$155	58
1373 Meadow Rose Pl	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (+2%)	0mo	$266,085	$157	58
1353 Meadow Rose Pl	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (+2%)	1mo	$259,900	$153	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,635
• Equity at exit: $39,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-80,795
• Equity at exit: $22,652

Cash invested: $73,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50263

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 886
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,539

Max offer price $228,596

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,498
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 10th St Waukee, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	962	$1,795	$1.86	14d	79	0.66mi
350 NW 6th St Waukee, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1163	$2,308	$1.98	14d	20	0.78mi
1036 NW Richmond Rd Waukee, IA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,750	$1.21	23d	1	0.83mi
289 NW Charlestown Ln Waukee, IA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.83mi
284 NW Caspian Ct Waukee, IA	4.0	2.5	1605	$2,195	$1.37	14d	1	0.84mi
175 NW Common Pl Waukee, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	929	$1,775	$1.91	14d	10	0.99mi
200 Corene Ave Waukee, IA	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,995	$1.41	19d	1	1.02mi
655 NW Williamsburg Ln Waukee, IA	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,445	$1.30	14d	1	1.22mi
305 NW Morgan Ct Waukee, IA	5.0	3.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	43d	1	1.28mi
1283 NW Williamsburg Ln Unit 1 Waukee, IA	4.0	3.0	1410	$2,495	$1.77	14d	1	1.29mi
122 NW Pike Cir Waukee, IA	4.0	2.5	1809	$2,495	$1.38	43d	1	1.30mi
1110 NW Sproul Dr Waukee, IA	4.0	3.0	2028	$2,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.36mi
330 NE Cardinal Ln Waukee, IA	4.0	3.0	1492	$2,500	$1.68	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   listed $261,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$7,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Waukee

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #682

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waukee, IA
• County: Dallas County · 77,082 people
• City population: 29,611
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 29,611
• Household income: $102,762
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.95%
• Current HPI: 169.2421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — DMMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $261,990 DMMLS