2901 Beech Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1958 7,200 sqft lot $89/sqft · 147% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-story residence featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car attached garage is perfectly situated in the heart of the neighborhood. The delightful 1400 sq ft home has an inviting, neutral interior and an abundance of natural light. The large bedrooms offer both comfort, practicality and privacy, with ample closet space. The beautiful Dunbar Lake can be admired from both the backyard and the upstairs primary suite window. The potential for this property is boundless, making it a must-see opportunity. Welcome to your new home!

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($585/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,683 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,516
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 147.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2132 E 30th St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,191 (-15%)	16mo	$53,000	$45	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,663
• Equity at exit: $57,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $63,871
• Equity at exit: $90,300

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,891/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $84	+0% $49	+5% $13	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $3	+0% $49	+5% $94	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $81	base $49	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.07mi
2806 E 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	45d	1	0.15mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	45d	1	0.54mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	23d	1	0.54mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	45d	1	0.68mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	23d	1	0.97mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	1	1.06mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	23d	1	1.18mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	45d	1	1.18mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	45d	1	1.20mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	1.20mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	46d	1	1.22mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	15d	1	1.24mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	1.25mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	15d	1	1.34mi
2603 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	45d	1	1.39mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	15d	1	1.49mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    listed $125,000 Active 661-char remark
15. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus
16. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus
17. 2023-11-09
    soldstatus Closed 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Two-story residence featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car attached garage is perfectly situated in the heart of the neighborhood. The delightful 1400 sq ft home has an inviting, neutral interior and an abundance of natural light. The large bedrooms offer both comfort, practicality and privacy, with ample closet space. The beautiful Dunbar Lake can be admired from both the backyard and the upstairs primary suite window. The potential for this property is boundless, making it a must-see opportunity. Welcome to your new home!

18. 2023-10-07
    status Pending 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Two-story residence featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car attached garage is perfectly situated in the heart of the neighborhood. The delightful 1400 sq ft home has an inviting, neutral interior and an abundance of natural light. The large bedrooms offer both comfort, practicality and privacy, with ample closet space. The beautiful Dunbar Lake can be admired from both the backyard and the upstairs primary suite window. The potential for this property is boundless, making it a must-see opportunity. Welcome to your new home!

19. 2023-10-02
    listed $113,000 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Two-story residence featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car attached garage is perfectly situated in the heart of the neighborhood. The delightful 1400 sq ft home has an inviting, neutral interior and an abundance of natural light. The large bedrooms offer both comfort, practicality and privacy, with ample closet space. The beautiful Dunbar Lake can be admired from both the backyard and the upstairs primary suite window. The potential for this property is boundless, making it a must-see opportunity. Welcome to your new home!

20. 2009-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,891
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-10-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-10-02 Listed $113,000 LARMLS
• 2009-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,891 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.