317 11TH St #2 · Union City, NJ 07087

$645,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2007 $461/sqft · 21% below area Est $816k · 21% under $348/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 317 11th Street, Unit 2, a beautifully updated three-bedroom condo perfectly positioned for the Manhattan commuter seeking both convenience and comfort. Just minutes from Hoboken and a quick commute into NYC, this residence offers seamless access to the city while enjoying the charm of Union City living. The home features newly refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting throughout, and an airy open layout with French doors that lead to a private balcony, allowing for abundant natural light and fresh air. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive private rear deck, exclusive to this unit, offering the perfect setting for morning coffee, intimate gatherings, or summer cookouts. The spacious primary suite includes two closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath, while additional highlights include in-unit washer and dryer and a dedicated parking space. This is a rare opportunity to own a move-in ready home that combines modern updates, private outdoor space, and unbeatable proximity to Manhattan.

Key facts

• $348 HOA
• Parking
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $645k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (55.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (55.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 226 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,405/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$111k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $645k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,864 (55.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.51%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $816,104
• List price: $645,000
• Delta: -20.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $214,936
• Equity at exit: $581,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $722,039
• Equity at exit: $1,253,093

Cash invested: $180,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07087

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,382
• Tax from tax record: −$724 /mo · $8,684/yr
• Insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$348
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $-2,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,978

Max offer price $285,864

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $161,250
• Closing costs: $19,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
809 Palisade Ave #1 Union City, NJ	4.0	1.0	1284	$3,300	$2.57	43d	1	0.10mi
809 Palisade Ave Unit ONE Union City, NJ	4.0	1.0	1284	$3,300	$2.57	13d	1	0.10mi
320 6th St #1 Union City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	20d	1	0.20mi
1415 Manhattan Ave Unit 501 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1118	$3,890	$3.48	3d	1	0.21mi
612 12th St Unit 3 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1234	$2,900	$2.35	17d	1	0.22mi
612 12th St Unit 4 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,600	$2.42	43d	1	0.22mi
410 5th St Unit 3 Union City, NJ	4.0	1.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	43d	1	0.26mi
1200 Central Ave #10 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	920	$2,600	$2.83	43d	1	0.28mi
1306 Central Ave Unit 2nd Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	43d	1	0.30mi
22 W 19th St #2 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,550	$2.96	7d	1	0.35mi
22 W 19th St #2 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,550	$2.96	24d	1	0.35mi
710 6th St Unit 1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$2,450	$2.78	24d	1	0.37mi
710 6th St Unit 1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$2,450	$2.78	43d	1	0.37mi
712 6th St Unit 1R Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	924	$2,850	$3.08	43d	1	0.37mi
1331 Grand St Apt 307 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1116	$4,450	$3.99	24d	1	0.38mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	932	$3,300	$3.54	2d	5	0.38mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	944	$3,300	$3.50	43d	2	0.38mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	932	$3,300	$3.54	17d	4	0.38mi
1405 Clinton St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	979	$5,400	$5.51	4d	6	0.38mi
1331 Grand St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$4,450	$4.77	7d	2	0.40mi
801 Summit Ave Unit 2A Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	24d	1	0.40mi
1201 Adams St Unit 408 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1033	$5,600	$5.42	15d	1	0.40mi
1300 Clinton St Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	927	$4,700	$5.07	4d	6	0.42mi
1404 Willow Ave Hoboken, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1142	$17,000	$14.88	1d	9	0.42mi
380 Mountain Rd Apt 503 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,700	$3.48	13d	1	0.43mi
806 John F. Kennedy Blvd Apt 2 Union City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,500	$2.45	43d	1	0.44mi
1710 Park Ave Unit 913 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1240	$3,700	$2.98	24d	1	0.45mi
1710 Park Ave Unit 508 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,500	$2.69	24d	1	0.45mi
1710 Park Ave Unit 1008 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,800	$2.92	24d	1	0.45mi
1710 Park Ave Unit 914 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$3,100	$3.44	24d	1	0.45mi
1130 Grand St Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1017	$4,738	$4.66	1d	11	0.45mi
202 Saint Michaels Walk Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$3,200	$2.60	3d	1	0.46mi
28 Leonard St Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	2d	1	0.48mi
100 Harbor Blvd Weehawken, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$7,919	$8.90	7d	11	0.48mi
1100 Jefferson St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$5,554	$5.55	1d	7	0.48mi
311 Saint Michaels Walk Unit 311 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,884	$2.35	43d	1	0.49mi
1450 Garden St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$5,935	$6.38	3d	6	0.50mi
31 Leonard St Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1600	$3,100	$1.94	3d	1	0.51mi
1120 Clinton St Unit 1120 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	950	$4,000	$4.21	17d	1	0.51mi
1234 Park Ave Unit 1 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	1.0	875	$4,300	$4.91	7d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $348 · $4,176/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $645,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $645,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $645,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $645,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $645,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $645,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $645,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $645,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $645,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $645,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $645,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $645,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $645,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $645,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $645,000 1118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1118 chars)

    Welcome to 317 11th Street, Unit 2, a beautifully updated three-bedroom condo perfectly positioned for the Manhattan commuter seeking both convenience and comfort. Just minutes from Hoboken and a quick commute into NYC, this residence offers seamless access to the city while enjoying the charm of Union City living. The home features newly refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting throughout, and an airy open layout with French doors that lead to a private balcony, allowing for abundant natural light and fresh air. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive private rear deck, exclusive to this unit, offering the perfect setting for morning coffee, intimate gatherings, or summer cookouts. The spacious primary suite includes two closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath, while additional highlights include in-unit washer and dryer and a dedicated parking space. This is a rare opportunity to own a move-in ready home that combines modern updates, private outdoor space, and unbeatable proximity to Manhattan.

16. 2026-05-09
    price $645,000 1118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1118 chars)

    Welcome to 317 11th Street, Unit 2, a beautifully updated three-bedroom condo perfectly positioned for the Manhattan commuter seeking both convenience and comfort. Just minutes from Hoboken and a quick commute into NYC, this residence offers seamless access to the city while enjoying the charm of Union City living. The home features newly refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting throughout, and an airy open layout with French doors that lead to a private balcony, allowing for abundant natural light and fresh air. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive private rear deck, exclusive to this unit, offering the perfect setting for morning coffee, intimate gatherings, or summer cookouts. The spacious primary suite includes two closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath, while additional highlights include in-unit washer and dryer and a dedicated parking space. This is a rare opportunity to own a move-in ready home that combines modern updates, private outdoor space, and unbeatable proximity to Manhattan.

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $699,000 Active 1118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1118 chars)

    Welcome to 317 11th Street, Unit 2, a beautifully updated three-bedroom condo perfectly positioned for the Manhattan commuter seeking both convenience and comfort. Just minutes from Hoboken and a quick commute into NYC, this residence offers seamless access to the city while enjoying the charm of Union City living. The home features newly refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting throughout, and an airy open layout with French doors that lead to a private balcony, allowing for abundant natural light and fresh air. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive private rear deck, exclusive to this unit, offering the perfect setting for morning coffee, intimate gatherings, or summer cookouts. The spacious primary suite includes two closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath, while additional highlights include in-unit washer and dryer and a dedicated parking space. This is a rare opportunity to own a move-in ready home that combines modern updates, private outdoor space, and unbeatable proximity to Manhattan.

18. 2026-04-07
    listed $699,000 Active 1118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1118 chars)

    Welcome to 317 11th Street, Unit 2, a beautifully updated three-bedroom condo perfectly positioned for the Manhattan commuter seeking both convenience and comfort. Just minutes from Hoboken and a quick commute into NYC, this residence offers seamless access to the city while enjoying the charm of Union City living. The home features newly refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting throughout, and an airy open layout with French doors that lead to a private balcony, allowing for abundant natural light and fresh air. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive private rear deck, exclusive to this unit, offering the perfect setting for morning coffee, intimate gatherings, or summer cookouts. The spacious primary suite includes two closets and a well-appointed en-suite bath, while additional highlights include in-unit washer and dryer and a dedicated parking space. This is a rare opportunity to own a move-in ready home that combines modern updates, private outdoor space, and unbeatable proximity to Manhattan.

19. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus $345,000
20. 2008-05-20
    historical
21. 2008-05-20
    price $365,000
22. 2008-04-22
    listed $345,000
23. 2008-01-18
    historical
24. 2007-10-02
    historical
25. 2007-07-26
    listed $325,000
26. 2007-07-23
    listed $325,000
27. 2007-03-07
    historical
28. 2006-09-06
    listed $395,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,684 · $724/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,372 · $1,031/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,688/yr (+$307/mo · 42.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,130
• − Property taxes: −$8,684
• − Insurance: −$3,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,269
• − Management: −$3,269
• − HOA: −$4,176
• − Depreciation: −$18,764
• Taxable loss: −$36,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,798
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union City School District
• NCES district ID: 3416380
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,210
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8312
• State rank: #399 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, NJ
• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 66,463
• Household income: $64,310
• Rent vs Own: 80.9% rent · 19.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6042.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 28% White 10% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 9% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.10%
• Current HPI: 597.8126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+63.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $645,000 HCMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $645,000 NJMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $699,000 NJMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $699,000 HCMLS
• 2008-06-30 Sold (MLS) $345,000 HCMLS
• 2008-05-20 Price Changed $365,000 HCMLS
• 2008-05-20 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2008-04-22 Listed $345,000 HCMLS
• 2008-01-18 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2007-10-02 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2007-07-26 Listed $325,000 HCMLS
• 2007-07-23 Listed $325,000 HCMLS
• 2007-03-07 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2006-09-06 Listed $395,000 HCMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,684 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.