2302 Perdido Bay Ln · Sealy, TX 77474

$270,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE AUGUST 2026. Explore open concept living at its finest in The Baylor floor plan at Westward Pointe, a 1,476 sq. ft. single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming porch and foyer lead into an open family room that connects seamlessly to the dining room and kitchen that highlights premium countertops, sleek cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient pantry. The private primary bedroom offers a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Three additional bedrooms are located near a second full bath, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The home also includes ample storage and a 2-car garage, making The Baylor both comfor

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Inframark; Annual association fee; Association covers clubhouse and common areas; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; 2026 construction; Brick and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 12 x 16; Bedroom (First level) — 10 x 11; Bedroom (First level) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First level) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $270,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,160.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.6% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,160
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2226 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+8%)	23mo	$259,990	$163	60
2018 Woodlark Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+8%)	21mo	$266,990	$167	59
2233 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+8%)	23mo	$266,990	$167	57
2023 Woodlark Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	17mo	$264,990	$158	57
2005 Woodlark Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+8%)	19mo	$253,990	$159	57
2017 Woodlark Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	18mo	$264,990	$158	55
2033 Woodlark Way	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	20mo	$267,990	$160	55
2011 Woodlark Way	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	19mo	$262,990	$157	54
301 Morning Dove Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+11%)	9mo	$319,000	$195	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-25,458
• Equity at exit: $35,212

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,463
• Equity at exit: $20,419

Cash invested: $66,125 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77474

• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,542/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,147

Max offer price $236,160

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $282	+0% $200	+5% $118	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $105	+0% $200	+5% $295	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $260	base $200	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,040
• Closing costs: $7,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Morning Dove Trl Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,400	$1.30	0d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,990 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,990 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,990 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,990 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,990 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,990 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,990 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,990 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $270,990 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $269,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,229
• − Property taxes: −$3,542
• − Insurance: −$1,181
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$6,870
• Taxable loss: −$1,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood or tile — Durable flooring improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood or tile — Durable flooring improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sealy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,842
• Composite: 34.42/100
• National rank: #5200
• State rank: #405 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sealy

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sealy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,846

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
• Current HPI: 195.9491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $269,990 HARMLS