8171 Cobblestone Dr · Fort Pierce, FL 34945

$289,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Townhouse · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,210 sqft lot 1-car garage $193/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pearson townhome combines style, functionality, and modern finishes in a layout designed for today's lifestyle. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,464 square feet of living space, this home is perfect for families, professionals, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living with high-quality design. On the first floor, an inviting foyer opens into a spacious living and dining area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient pantry, making it both practical and elegant. A private patio extends your living space outdoors, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.

Key facts

• $193 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $289,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 59% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,915 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,990
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -2.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8175 Cobblestone Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	1mo	$289,000	$198	99
8156 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	1mo	$309,000	$211	98
8164 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	2mo	$299,000	$204	97
8172 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	2mo	$289,000	$198	97
8144 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$205	95
8140 Cobblestone Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	3mo	$289,990	$198	95
8136 Cobblestone Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	3mo	$289,985	$198	95
8139 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	4mo	$274,000	$187	95
8132 Cobblestone Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	4mo	$289,990	$198	95
8128 Cobblestone Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	4mo	$289,990	$198	94
8135 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	5mo	$309,990	$212	94
8112 Cobblestone Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+0%)	7mo	$294,990	$201	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,988
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-99,636
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $294,990 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34945

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$193
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,001

Max offer price $218,915

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-264	-5% $-347	+0% $-431	+5% $-514	+10% $-598
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-528	+0% $-431	+5% $-334	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-356	base $-431	+0.5pp $-507	+1.0pp $-585

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8172 Cobblestone Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,430	$1.66	2d	1	0.05mi
9511 Potomac Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,575	$1.41	164d	1	0.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (contact for details)
• HOA & community: HOA with common area maintenanceMonthly HOA fee of $193

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (covered)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerThree-phase electricCable available
• Home design: TownhouseNew constructionFaces southeast2 stories
• Construction: Built by D.R. HortonCBS constructionComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: No waterfrontSidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric rangeElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWoodOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsBlinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $289,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $289,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $289,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $289,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $289,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $289,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $289,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $289,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $289,000 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $289,000 Active 47 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $289,000 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $289,000 Active 45 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 44 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $289,000 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $289,000 Active 42 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $289,000 Active 41 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $289,000 Active 40 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $289,000 Active 39 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 38 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 37 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,000 Active 36 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 35 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 34 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 33 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 32 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 31 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 30 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $289,000 Active 29 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 28 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 27 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 25 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,000 Active 24 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 23 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 22 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $289,000 Active 21 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $289,000 Active 20 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $289,000 Active 19 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $289,000 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,423/yr (+$119/mo · 145.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$6,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − HOA: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$10,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,457
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Pearson townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor touch-ups throughout — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weatherbee Elementary School F FL #1,797/2,144 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Dan Mccarty Middle School F FL #542/571 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Fort Pierce Central High School F FL #441/667 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: St. Lucie · 338,016 people
• City population: 78,556
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,214
• Household income: $72,941
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.85%
• Current HPI: 402.2457
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (contact for details)
• HOA & community: HOA with common area maintenanceMonthly HOA fee of $193

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (covered)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerThree-phase electricCable available
• Home design: TownhouseNew constructionFaces southeast2 stories
• Construction: Built by D.R. HortonCBS constructionComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: No waterfrontSidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric rangeElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWoodOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsBlinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-08-31 Listed $289,000 Beaches MLS