35 Valley Pass St · Manchester, VT 05255

$620,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2003 0.35 ac lot Est $488k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

You’ll fall in love with this charming, fully renovated Cape tucked away in one of Manchester’s most peaceful neighborhoods. Just minutes from downtown, this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home blends modern style with everyday comfort. Since 2022, the property has undergone a top-to-bottom transformation. The main floor now features a bright, open-concept layout with a brand-new kitchen—Viatera quartz countertops, Samsung appliances, and a large center island—flowing into spacious living and dining areas. A new sliding door leads to a back deck and level yard, perfect for outdoor living. Two bedrooms and a full bath are located on the main floor. Upstairs, you’ll find two en suite bedrooms with stylishly renovated baths, including a heated floor in the primary. The laundry has been relocated upstairs with a new Samsung washer/dryer. Additional updates include a new 3-zone LG heat pump system, new baseboard heating, LED lighting, new laminate flooring, updated windows and doors, custom wardrobes, attic storage, a new roof, paved driveway, and a hot tub-ready platform. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated, 35 Valley Pass is ideal as a full-time residence or a Vermont retreat.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; 200 Amp electric service (Green Mountain Power); Internet - Fiber Optic available; Cable available; LP/bottled gas available; Telephone available
• Home design: Colonial-style home; Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Yellow exterior; Shingle (asphalt) roof; Built in 2003
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete foundation (basement)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved driveway; No water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining area (19 x 10); Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first and second levels (two on level 1: 11 x 13 and 12 x 15; two on level 2 including master 12 x 15 and another 12 x 16)
• Flooring: Manufactured flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bath; Two 3/4 baths; One half bath
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Baseboard heating; Heat pump; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Unfinished basement with interior access, concrete floors, bulkhead and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $620k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($81k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $620k).
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 5.0% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#80 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary/Middle School (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #112 of 192 statewide, top 58%, 392 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $174k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $620,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.69%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $487,968
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Valley Pass	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,768 (0%)	11mo	$610,000	$345	91
21 Roberts Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,638 (-7%)	18mo	$375,000	$229	38
122 Highland Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,646 (-7%)	16mo	$455,000	$276	37
335 Carlen St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,992 (+13%)	21mo	$540,000	$271	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $767,851
• Equity at exit: $558,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 12.08×
• Total profit: $1,922,869
• Equity at exit: $1,204,524

Cash invested: $173,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05255

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,073/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,841
• Net cashflow: $6,754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,978

Max offer price $620,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,105	-5% $6,930	+0% $6,754	+5% $6,579	+10% $6,403
Rent	-10% $5,686	-5% $6,220	+0% $6,754	+5% $7,289	+10% $7,823
Rate	-1.0pp $7,067	-0.5pp $6,912	base $6,754	+0.5pp $6,594	+1.0pp $6,430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,000
• Closing costs: $18,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Eagle Nest Rd Manchester, VT	3.0	2.5	1299	$25,000	$19.25	44d	1	0.67mi
78 Franklin Rd Manchester, VT	4.0	2.0	1950	$3,200	$1.64	44d	1	1.20mi
5228 Steeple View Rd Manchester, VT	3.0	3.5	2180	$5,000	$2.29	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $620,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $620,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $620,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,073 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,427 · $702/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,353/yr (+$279/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $162,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,730
• − Property taxes: −$5,073
• − Insurance: −$3,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,987
• − Management: −$12,987
• − Depreciation: −$18,036
• Taxable income: $75,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,101
• After-tax cash flow: $62,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #17922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,527
• Population (ZIP): 4,086

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.85%
• Current HPI: 403.1398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+158.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $620,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $610,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-24 Sold (MLS) $610,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-29 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $599,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-04-07 Sold (MLS) $260,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-03-05 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2021-02-23 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2021-02-04 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2021-01-28 Listed $275,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-31 Sold (MLS) $230,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-02-27 Listed $240,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,073 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.