430 School St · Craig, CO 81625

$92,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1945 6,250 sqft lot Est $104k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 2 bed, 1 bath cottage with a huge fenced back yard right in the heart of downtown Craig. 2 block walk to main street! The covered back porch is wonderful in the summer, and there is so much you can do with all of the yard space. This is a wonderful place to start, or if you are looking to get into the rental market - this is it! Home might go FHA, so call and we can talk about it. Call your favorite Realtor today to take a look!

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Craig subdivision; Directions: School Street
• Financial info: Tax year 2025 — annual tax amount approximately $666.12

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Home design: Single family residence
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.14 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Wood stove; Forced air heating; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.2% in Craig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#160 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime D.
• Moffat County School District Re: No. 1 (town): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #53 of 86 in CO (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Moffat County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moffat County population projected at -41% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 Legion St	0.59mi	2/1.0	700 (+9%)	19mo	$113,900	$163	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,610
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $24,890
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81625

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $301	+0% $275	+5% $249	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $229	+0% $275	+5% $321	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $298	base $275	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 396-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $92,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $666 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $666 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$1,258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $1,953
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$469
• After-tax cash flow: $2,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moffat County School District Re: No. 1
• NCES district ID: 0805730
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,633
• Composite: 25.07/100
• National rank: #7539
• State rank: #53 of 86 in CO

Livability — Craig

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #12817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Craig, CO
• Population (ZIP): 12,242

Population outlook (Moffat County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,901 people
• By 2030: 9,922 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 8,081 · -25.9%
• By 2050: 6,460 · -40.7%
• By 2075: 3,896 · -64.3%
• By 2100: 2,620 · -76.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Moffat

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 17.5% · R 80.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+63.6 2016: R+67.9 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.11%
• Current HPI: 284.444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+53.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $92,000 AGMLS
• 2023-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 AGMLS
• 2023-05-11 Pending — AGMLS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $170,000 AGMLS
• 2023-02-27 Listed $185,000 AGMLS
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) $75,500 AGMLS
• 2017-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-31 Sold (MLS) $59,900 AGMLS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · +226.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.